UFN Gleison Tibau v. Caol Uno

Gleison Tibau and Caol Uno come from wrestling / grappling backgrounds so this is a technique matchup rather than a striker versus grappler contest. This kind of matchup produces two things: sheer boredom or a thrilling fight. Either someone gets clipped early and this fight ends in a surprise knockout or they will roll like dung beetles trying to get behind each other and squeeze the consciousness clean. I am hoping for fireworks, but Gleison Tibau has been a decision master in the recent past like he can't find the right strategy to win. This indicates a weaker mental strength. Caol Uno rolls for broke sometimes and if he comes in with the right strategy he may surprise Tibau. I think Uno's best tactics will be to explode and look for the opening and gain the back of Tibau for a rear naked choke. Tibau is a larger fighter, so I predict he will use his power advantage to smother Uno and keep Uno in jeopardy. I predict Tibau by decision.

UFC 111 Georges "Rush" St. Pierre v. Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy

The welterweight belt is on the line at UFC 111, with Georges "Rush" St. Pierre returning from an injury layoff to face a pompous and brash striker Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy. From the outside this looks like a karate striker versus muay thai striker match. But GSP has found a natural talent for wrestling that he has used to dominate larger stronger wrestlers. GSP's best tactics will be to smother and ground and pound Hardy into submission. GSP is not afraid of heavy hands. Hardy is not as well rounded and he will look to get that one nasty blow in to TKO/KO GSP. I predict GSP will dominate from whereever he wants and grind Hardy to a 3rd round submission or TKO.

UFC 111 Matt "The Immortal" Brown v. Ricardo "The Big Dog" Almeida

Matt Brown is part of the new wave of MMA fighters. Ricardo Almeida is one of the old school BJJ fighters that can claim to be part of the founders of the MMA movement. Matt Brown is a rounded striker and grappler. Almeida has submitted strong competitors like Nate Marquardt. But Matt Brown is more than a strong MMA fighter, he has determination to win and powers through pain and adversity. While Brown has lost by arm bar to Amir Sadollah, he has had 2 years of training to get out of that trap. Brown's best tactics are to keep this on the feet and look for the KO, and if that fails grind out a win in top position while keeping out of the submission. Almeida's best chance is using his BJJ grappling to a submission if he doesn't want to end up like Pete Sell - dazed and confused. Brown has the rounded skill advantage, I predict Brown with a TKO or long hard decision.

UFC 111 Jon Fitch v. Thiago "The Pitbull" Alves

This matchup comes down to which fighter has evovled more skills and power since their last meeting when Jon Fitch beat Alves. As Randy Couture says, the pressure is on the winner because the loser can make some adjustments and is motivated. Fitch has not evolved to the same level as Alves. Thiago has the skill set to dominate Fitch anywhere. Alves defeated Matt Hughes and this could be very similar. The best tactics for Alves will be to stop the takedown and use his muay thai to punish Fitch as he tries to grapple. My system predicts a Thiago Alves victory.

Dream 13 Siala “Mighty Mo” Siliga v. Josh "The Baby Faced Assassin" Barnett

Josh Barnett and Mighty Mo are longtime members of the MMA/K1 elite. Josh Barnett is known now as the guy who blew a chance to face Fedor in Affliction due to a positive drug test. In this matchup he faces a very experienced kick boxer who was submitted during his last MMA match. I predict that Mighty Mo will want to stand and trade. Josh Barnett has a size and reach advantage and is a good grappler. Josh's best tactics will be to use his reach to frustrate Mighty Mo and then either dive in for the takedown and the arm-snapping submission against a heavier opponent on the ground ( a favorite tactic of smaller fighters in good ol' open weight days of UFC ) or he may want to make a statement and silence critics by knocking out Mighty Mo on the feet. Barnett is more conservative with strategy than he is with steroids so this may be an arm snapping affair.
I watched the DREAM news conference and Barnett looks like a man who understands what a last chance looks like. He will arrive prepared and fight like a wounded animal. In either end game, I predict Barnett will defeat Mighty Mo inside the distance.

WEC 47 Deividas Taurosevicius vs. L.C. Davis

I am not the most familiar with either fighter, but I do know that Taurosevicius is a good tactician and he adapts in real time to his opponents. My system predicts Taurosevicius by a close decision.

Strikeforce - Luke Rockhold v. Paul Bradley

I prefer to predict for fighters that have been around long enough to have a history, but in this case I have analyzed Luke Rockhold and I will go out on a limb and predict his victory against Paul Bradley. He has the right attitude and rounded skills. He has mental toughness, he was being dominated by Jesse Taylor and then held out to turn it around for the win. And he understands tactics.

UFC 111 Carwin v. Mir

Carwin was rocked by Gabriel Gonzaga before eventually landing the KO blow. Carwin's chin is suspect. I don't think he wants that- a stand up war with Frank Mir. His best strategy is to out wrestle Mir in a textbook rehash of Mir v. Lesnar 2. Carwin wants to muscle Mir to the fence and then suppress and silence him. I predict Carwin by an ugly ground and pound TKO or decision.

UFN Live Kongo v. Buentello

Cheick Kongo had a chance to disintegrate Velasquez and didn't - mainly because he had not learned the circle away tactics of the best strikers like Liddell. He has a chance to prove he is a superior striker and Buentello will engage. I predict Kongo by KO, either first or second round.

UFC 110 Wanderlei v. Bisping

Wanderlei is a feared, balls to the wall, competitor who doesn't let a little thing like caution stop him from mauling opponents. At least until he met the UFC, where the more disciplined LHW challengers were able to give him a losing streak.

Bisping is a UFC marketing machine product, who was given hand picked opponents - Sinosic who still worked IT and had just flown in for the fight - to give him a leg up at LHW. Henderson exposed "The Count" as a striker without KO power.

Wanderlei is best when he charges - juggernaut style - and does not let his opponent circle away. "The Axe Murderer" will run Bisping over just like he did Jardine. My system predicts Wanderlei inside 3 minutes to put Bisping out for the count.

WINNER

[POST fight update - wow Bisping is such a loser, he actually thought he won that fight? One eye gouge, low kick, and he got dropped twice by punch combos. Bisping almost fell face first into the canvas. This guy is unbelievable- what an ego. And reaffirms my belief he is a marketing ploy.]

UFC 110 Velasquez v. Nogueira

This heavyweight battle is billed as a match of an up and comer versus a wily veteran. The UFC is really hyping Velasquez, the good ol' marketing machine, but here is the straight facts. Nogueira has KO power and Velasquez doesn't. Velasquez may be a workaholic and a wrestler, but Nogueira has submitted bigger and stronger wrestlers. Velasquez was nearly knocked out by Cheick Kongo, so he has a suspect chin and you can't hide that for long. Nogueira can take a punch to deliver damage and he will be prepared by Anderson Silva so he will have the best tactics and the best conditioning. My system predicts Nogueira to win, by whatever Velasquez gives up first.

MMA Rules favor wrestlers?

I think the unified MMA rules that favour wrestlers are the clinch work on the fence and not the ground and pound. Couture scored an incomprehensible win in a fight when he was knocked to the ground twice. Perhaps that just means fighters have to roll for broke against a clinch or risk losing. The scoring seems to favour wrestlers for fence clinch and take downs versus strikes.

It leads to the complaint about no damage on the scorecard. I agree with Mauro Ranallo - for once - that the rules need damage over position because the whole point is to win, not be technically better.

But if you are going to open up the rules, why wouldn't you penalize Machida for running away from an opponent? That is in the scorecard already and they ignore it. He wasn't backing up to deliver a new blow, he was outright running with his back to his opponent and still he won? They have a rule about that already. Huh?

UFC 108 Evans v. Silva

Rashad Evans has a lot of talent to be boastful about, and if he returns to the ground game that brought him to the UFC, then he may have more to brag about. But, Thiago Silva is taller, faster and a well-rounded fighter, who can submit but prefers to bang. Evans was almost caught in a submission in his TUF days, so I see this fight ending by Silva submission if Evans is not careful or a Thiago Silva KO if Evans can't take this to the ground. I predict Thiago Silva to win wherever this fight goes.

Strikeforce - Cung Le v. Scott Smith

This match is a test of English breakfast - which one is the bangers and which one is the mash? Both fighters have proven striking and ground skills, and on paper Cung Le has the pedigree advantage. However, this is done in real time and not on paper - Smith is taller, can take a punch to deliver a KO, and is taking this fight seriously. Cung Le is coming off movies and will have ring rust. Strikers leave no room for error - if you are not ready then you are done quickly. I predict Smith will KO Cung Le inside of 5 minutes. (Correct Pick - unlike Pat over at http://www.mmabettingblog.com/2009/12/14/strikeforce-cung-le-vs-scott-smith-prediction/ who underestimated Smith's KO power with that one opportunity )

TUF 10 Nelson v. Schaub

I didn't make any predictions about this fight because I don't normally predict for new fighters and I hadn't seen any Schaub fights. But this one went exactly as Roy "Big Country" Nelson wanted it to. I guessed that Schaub would use his athleticism to outjab Nelson and get him frustrated ala Arlovski, but in the end he chose to stand right in front of Nelson and get tagged. I think this says as much about the ultimate fighter show format as it does about the fight - does it really make sense to put a guy with 20 fights in a competition with a bunch of junior fighters? I understand that this show was a Kimbo Slice showcase - and they bent their own format to entertain - but the outcome was in a sense predictable. The most well-rounded, and in this case portly fighter, Roy Nelson won the tournament and the contract. I think this is what they call karma for Dana White - the guy he picked on for being unimpressive steps in and flattens Brendan "the hybrid" Schaub in under 4 minutes. Now Dana has to see Roy's smiling face about twice a year.

Karma is a bitch.

UFC 106 Rumble Johnson v. Josh Koscheck

Johnson is the climbing new guy and "The Kos" was that guy about 3 years ago. Johnson is hungry and comfortable with taking a hit to give a better one. Both have pedigrees in wrestling, but each wants to prove that he can stand and bang. Like Yoshida, Koscheck's only smart strategy is to close in and make a dirty boxing or ground and pound match. Kos has already been knocked out and can't let Johnson drive in with his patented straight right hand. I anticipate Johnson will be able to reach out a touch Kos at will and rebuff any takedown offence. My system predicts Johnson by a considerable margin.

UFC 105 Wilks v. Brown

Brown showed why he has been an underrated fighter since his loss on TUF against Amir Sadollah. Brown showed his speed, strength, endurance, and skill set finishing an outclassed James Wilks. Brown varied his attack and he used the ground minded Wilks strengths against him with a well-timed flying knee.

UFC 105 Couture v. Vera

I don't know how the favoured fighters in the UFC seem to get the real advantages, Couture gets knocked down and in pain and Vera doesn't swarm in and then in the second round Couture had a blatant shorts hold while he smothered Vera against the fence. Vera had Couture in trouble in the first and second rounds, and took down Couture to end round 3. Again, the refs must be crosseyed - or biased. Couture's win can not be an endorsement- he looked incapable of finishing the action. And Vera let a golden opportunity slip through his fingers.

UFC 105 Bisping v. Kang

Michael Bisping, a man that suffers from mental diarrhea and what appears like "little empire syndrome" did get knocked out by Kang in the first round. Luckily Kang spent the rest of the round trying to get to full mount and allowed Bisping back into the fight instead of standing back up in a restart to finish Bisping on the feet. Kang seemed a little confused, he circled to the left when both he and Bisping are orthodox fighters - a little mental lapse for Kang. It seems Bisping gets a second redemption and as it seems to go when Bisping fights in the UK he gets a little extra help from the judges (Sinosic, Matt Hammill, ...) - of UFC marketing spin.

UFC 105 Winner v. Delgado

Andre Winner proved that he should have one TUF when he dismantled Roli Delgado with an overhand right, that dropped Delgado on the first strike and continued to find its mark. Andre Winner was a little sloppy and overconfident, but Delgado had no response to the overhand right and it proved the difference in a TKO for Winner, who looks ready for more than Ross Pearson.