Brock Lesnar has elevated himself to the toughest SOB on the planet. Well he was a round away from being KOed by Shane Carwin. That self importance may make him an elite athlete, but he needs reality as well.
Tactically, Brock Lesnar wants to make this a simple wrestling match where he uses his size and strength to dominate and suppress Cain Velasquez. So he needs to close the distance and make it very hard for and offence. Brock wants to keep things simple and refuse all the dangerous conditions.
For Cain, the task is to stay at long range and dance in and out of control while picking his moves and his shots. He does not want to come into close range or get stuck in a corner without an exist strategy.
As for the intangibles, Cain has not been under the pressure of a 5 round fight in the past, but neither has Brock really - Couture doesn't count since he was really a skilled light heavyweight. And Brock has not recovered from a wicked combination of strikes like the one that put Nogueira onto the mat for the count.
From a matchup perspective the fight favours Velasquez: Brock has to close the distance and dominate but Cain has the speed and skill to attack and retreat at will. If Cain is smart he will feint in and out of range and frustrate the champ. And then when Brock is frustrated and behind in points the mistakes will happen and the lights will go out. Expect Cain to win in the third by KO or ref stoppage.
Saturday, October 23, 2010
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