Thursday, April 15, 2010

Strikeforce - Gegard Mousasi v. Mo Lawal

This matchup will be more interesting, I believe, than the main event. Mo Lawal is a converted wrestler looking to parlay his cockiness into gold; Mousasi is an ever-improving force who has trained with the best and prides himself on being a consummate warrior. Lawal has never faced a well-rounded fighter at the top of the game - so this will be a real coming out party for Mo "King" Lawal.

The best tactics for Lawal will be to rediscover wrestling and make this a ground and pound affair. I predict that when Lawal gets Mousasi to the ground - he will find the arm bar and knee bar attempts very troubling. That will make him pause. Mousasi has been pressed by larger and faster grapplers like Sokoudjou so Mousasi will not be phased by it. On the feet, look for Mousasi to stick and move before giving "King" Mo Lawal a taste of top flight competition.

This may be a long drawn out contest, but I predict it will go Mousasi's way.

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Strikeforce - Dan Henderson v. Jake Shields

Dan Henderson was once described by Randy Couture as a man that, once he got a hold of you, you needed to ask nicely to get him to let go. Hendo is more than a match for Jake Shields, in wrestling or in striking. Hendo wants to prove something now that the UFC cut him loose and he wants to demonstrate why that was a big mistake. I think that Hendo could have beat Anderson a second time, and perhaps he is figuring his value will go up when he wins against some other talented fighters. While I don't think Hendo is the same as in the Pride days, and he may not have enough tricks left up his sleave, but he is one of the original RAW wrestlers who is as tough as they come.

Jake Shields is a young fighter with a long career ahead of him. If he comes in with the right training camp and right tactics I can see a speedy victory for Shields. His speed and cardio vascular could exploit a quick weakness. His best tactics would be to make this a striking match and keep Hendo at reach and on the defensive while he looks for that chin. Unfortunately, Shields is not an exceptional striker yet and this seems like a feat too hard to pull off. Remember, Hendo knocked out Wanderlei Silva with a wild punch that no one expected - especially the axe murderer Wanderlei. Sooner or later a striking exchange would end with a hard left and then a sound nap.

I see this fight going where Dan Henderson wants it to and then look for some old school ground and pound. Hendo will be too much for the younger fighter. I predict a Hendo victory inside 2 rounds.

Sunday, April 11, 2010

Dana White and Anderson Silva at UFC 112

I have a split opinion when it comes to Dana White; one minute he makes a lot of sense, the next minute I wonder which planet he is orbiting.

I agree with Dana's complaint that Anderson Silva is tarnishing the good reputation of mixed martial arts (MMA) after Anderson's UFC 112 performance versus Demian Maia. Anderson should stop watching pro wrestling or the NFL. No one likes that sort of thing in MMA - it's more of a low brow gimmick. Anderson Silva would have more right to brag if he did risk losing by taking on opponents rather than run out the clock and showboating. If Anderson was so tough then why didn't he get on the ground and finish Maia? If Anderson Silva is such a student of the game, then why didn't he try to submit a fellow Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt in Abu Dhabi, home of the Abu Dhabi ADCC competition? That would have been a better event for the fans and a more memorable accomplishment.

Back to Dana White. Dana White is right to complain. But Dana White also knows Anderson Silva is bored. He cleaned out the division. And Dana won't want you to remember back in November 2009 when he refused to give Dan Henderson a better deal. Hendo had learned his lesson from fight #1 against Anderson Silva and he has a real chance to beat Anderson Silva. So Dana White forgets to tell you that he made a bad decision which set up that farce at UFC 112. Dana refused to force a rematch that almost certainly would have ended with a Hendo victory. Of course, no manager ever makes a mistake - at least that's what they'll tell you.

Anderson Silva is comfortable on top. Too comfortable. And he is taking his lessons from Tito Ortiz instead of Fedor. Anderson would deserve the praise more if he risked it all for a little more - instead of trash talking and ducking competition.

Friday, April 2, 2010

UFC 112 Anderson Silva v. Demian Maia

This contest was not supposed to happen, but when an injury forced a new competitor Demian Maia was dropped into the pit with the most experienced striker on the planet. It doesn't take a crystal ball to see that Demian Maia, who lost by one punch to Nate Marquardt, is unlikely to win. Demian Maia has a chance to win, but he has to teleport onto the side of Anderson Silva and then roll him to the ground. It is a widely held belief that Anderson will be beaten on the ground, like Ryo Chonan's incredible move. I always thought it would be Dan Henderson to roll him over and pound him to sleep.

Anderson Silva has long arms and so he's in trouble when you get in close like Hendo tried to do.

Demian Maia's best strategy is to forget striking altogether and work on his wrestling. He needs to drive in and avoid the straight right while he is aiming for a double leg takedown. Maia needs to push Silva into the fence to avoid the extra blows and then he needs to isolate one limb from the rest. Silva has lots of weaknesses, but other fighters just don't get a chance to exploit them.

Post Fight Analysis

After reviewing the fight, Demian Maia should have listened to me. If he came in ready to charge and wrestle that fight would have been a whole lot more interesting instead of embarrassing.

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Disclaimer

This blog posts predictions for information only, and offers no responsibility for the information. No warranty implied, explicit, or expected. If you bet on fights you accept the risks of gambling, these are sporting competitions and each fighter always has a chance to win (in some cases only if a meteor drops on the arena). The outcome is never certain. WARNING: Predictions may change close to the fight given new information, check back often!!!