Strikeforce - Gegard Mousasi v. Mo Lawal

This matchup will be more interesting, I believe, than the main event. Mo Lawal is a converted wrestler looking to parlay his cockiness into gold; Mousasi is an ever-improving force who has trained with the best and prides himself on being a consummate warrior. Lawal has never faced a well-rounded fighter at the top of the game - so this will be a real coming out party for Mo "King" Lawal.

The best tactics for Lawal will be to rediscover wrestling and make this a ground and pound affair. I predict that when Lawal gets Mousasi to the ground - he will find the arm bar and knee bar attempts very troubling. That will make him pause. Mousasi has been pressed by larger and faster grapplers like Sokoudjou so Mousasi will not be phased by it. On the feet, look for Mousasi to stick and move before giving "King" Mo Lawal a taste of top flight competition.

This may be a long drawn out contest, but I predict it will go Mousasi's way.

Strikeforce - Dan Henderson v. Jake Shields

Dan Henderson was once described by Randy Couture as a man that, once he got a hold of you, you needed to ask nicely to get him to let go. Hendo is more than a match for Jake Shields, in wrestling or in striking. Hendo wants to prove something now that the UFC cut him loose and he wants to demonstrate why that was a big mistake. I think that Hendo could have beat Anderson a second time, and perhaps he is figuring his value will go up when he wins against some other talented fighters. While I don't think Hendo is the same as in the Pride days, and he may not have enough tricks left up his sleave, but he is one of the original RAW wrestlers who is as tough as they come.

Jake Shields is a young fighter with a long career ahead of him. If he comes in with the right training camp and right tactics I can see a speedy victory for Shields. His speed and cardio vascular could exploit a quick weakness. His best tactics would be to make this a striking match and keep Hendo at reach and on the defensive while he looks for that chin. Unfortunately, Shields is not an exceptional striker yet and this seems like a feat too hard to pull off. Remember, Hendo knocked out Wanderlei Silva with a wild punch that no one expected - especially the axe murderer Wanderlei. Sooner or later a striking exchange would end with a hard left and then a sound nap.

I see this fight going where Dan Henderson wants it to and then look for some old school ground and pound. Hendo will be too much for the younger fighter. I predict a Hendo victory inside 2 rounds.

Strikeforce - Luke Rockhold v. Paul Bradley

I prefer to predict for fighters that have been around long enough to have a history, but in this case I have analyzed Luke Rockhold and I will go out on a limb and predict his victory against Paul Bradley. He has the right attitude and rounded skills. He has mental toughness, he was being dominated by Jesse Taylor and then held out to turn it around for the win. And he understands tactics.

Strikeforce - Cung Le v. Scott Smith

This match is a test of English breakfast - which one is the bangers and which one is the mash? Both fighters have proven striking and ground skills, and on paper Cung Le has the pedigree advantage. However, this is done in real time and not on paper - Smith is taller, can take a punch to deliver a KO, and is taking this fight seriously. Cung Le is coming off movies and will have ring rust. Strikers leave no room for error - if you are not ready then you are done quickly. I predict Smith will KO Cung Le inside of 5 minutes. (Correct Pick - unlike Pat over at http://www.mmabettingblog.com/2009/12/14/strikeforce-cung-le-vs-scott-smith-prediction/ who underestimated Smith's KO power with that one opportunity )

Strikeforce - Fedor v. Rogers

I watched the fight between Rogers and Fedor, and it was a good fight. But the one thing I noticed as the fighters were announced was the nervousness and agitation in the face of Brett Rogers that told me he was not likely to win. As Matt Hughes once said, "the fight game is 90% mental" and this is true. It looks like Rogers gave Fedor too much respect and did not treat him badly. He broke Fedor's nose with the first punch but when he felt the power of Fedor he started backing up and that was not a good tactic.

Rogers did so well on the ground and showed he deserved to be there, most people assuming Fedor was going to ground and submit Rogers. Rogers surprised him, that was plain.


Rogers knows he could have one, and did beat himself, and he knows it. He should have swarmed Fedor and wiped him out like Arlovski.

Rogers showed some mental weakness against a truly great opponent. He needs to work on concentration and strike and move to set up the knockout blow.

Rogers like so many before, had the chance to finish Fedor but it demonstrates what a unique MMA artist Fedor is.

Strikeforce - Fedor v. Rogers

There is a lot of circular smack talk on the internet about Fedor and Rogers - without a lot of thinking.
Here's reality:
Rogers beat Arlovski because Arlovski was not prepared for the straight attack. Arlovski was beating Fedor for the same reason - tactics. Anyone can take one on the chin for a matt nap. Like a Hail Mary pass can win, all things being equal fighters must come prepared for their opponent's strength and strategy. The fighter that comes in with an unpredicted surprise strategy has the advantage.

Fedor knows how Rogers will attack, and he knows where Rogers is weak.

Rogers knows Fedor's skills, and he knows where Fedor is weak.

All that nonsense about who beat who or who is better is just plain nonsense - it's empty.

Fedor is Fedor's biggest weakness, he thinks he can keep recovering from mistakes, and against a hard puncher that isn't good.

Rogers is confident, but that is his biggest weakness.

Both must expose the weakness and stick to their game plan. The one who sticks to the game plan - the right tactics - will defeat the other guy. I predicted a while back that Rogers will win because hype and previous history means nothing; he has longer arms, stronger, faster, and willing to take a shot to deliver the knockout shot, and is not afraid of the consequences.


As my old karate instructor said, "professionals are predictable, amateurs are dangerous!"

Strikeforce - Pezao v. Fabricio Werdum

This is an interesting heavyweight matchup, Werdum had the skills to compete at the top of UFC, but one knockout to Junior Dos Santos and he's looking for a new home. Pezao is an underrated fighter without a lot of exposure in North America, but he has enough Muay Thai and BJJ to fend off Werdum. Pezao would be a handful for Fedor, and he trains at American Top Team so he has the edge in training camp and tactics. Here is how I see this matchup unfold: Pezao will wait for his moment to swarm Fabricio, expecting some counter punching, and then take this to the ground for some Ground and Pound. My system predicts Pezao by a considerable margin.

Sad to see pezao walk away from a wobbly werdum in the 1st round. He had that fight.e

Strikeforce - Mousasi v. Sokoudjou

Gegard Mousasi is not well known in the USA but he is a skilled fighter that has fought at lower weight classes and dominated opponents. Mousasi is stronger, and he is a more natural puncher so I predict Mousasi will dominate Sokoudjou on the feet and force this into a ground match where he will do worse than Babalu.

Strikeforce- Shields v. Miller

Miller is a seasoned fighter but this fight will look like GSP v Miller as Shields is a good wrestler and will look to take this down for some good 'ol ground and pound. Mayhem Miller has had trouble in the past with strong wrestlers, and tactically this is a bad matchup for him. I enjoy Miller serving up cold revenge on MTV's Bully Beatdown but this time karma is settling the score. My system predicts Shields by a considerable margin.