Strikeforce - Pezao v. Fabricio Werdum

This is an interesting heavyweight matchup, Werdum had the skills to compete at the top of UFC, but one knockout to Junior Dos Santos and he's looking for a new home. Pezao is an underrated fighter without a lot of exposure in North America, but he has enough Muay Thai and BJJ to fend off Werdum. Pezao would be a handful for Fedor, and he trains at American Top Team so he has the edge in training camp and tactics. Here is how I see this matchup unfold: Pezao will wait for his moment to swarm Fabricio, expecting some counter punching, and then take this to the ground for some Ground and Pound. My system predicts Pezao by a considerable margin.

Sad to see pezao walk away from a wobbly werdum in the 1st round. He had that fight.e

UFC 104 Machida v. Shogun

According to Lyoto Machida (here) he was superior to Shogun at UFC 104. According to Machida, he was superior but I just watched that fight over with the sound off as he suggested, and he had to change stance at 2:32 of round 2 because his front leg was hurt so badly and at the end of the fight he was wincing in pain from the repeated damage he took. Machida had one flurry where Shogun was backing up and taking damage, but that was in the 3rd round and lasted 20 seconds and then went on to take 7 unanswered leg kicks at the end of the round.

In fact, Herb Dean should have warned and then deducted a point from Lyoto for each round where he violated Rule 29 of the UFC's own rules:

"29. Timidity, including, without limitation, avoiding contact with an opponent, intentionally "

He ran away the whole fight. Had he not been the champion, he would have had a much lower score based on that alone. You can't run away the whole fight and call it "counter punching". I predict Shogun will eat him alive next time.

UFC 104 Shogun Rua v. Lyoto Machida

I just want to comment that Shogun Rua won the first round, by number of strikes, aggression and octagon control and for a counter puncher Machida was not that successful. Machida was in the corner between rounds getting his legs iced that's how much damage he took. Machida's game plan didn't work as I predicted here because he is predictable. You can have the most unorthodox style but in the end people can watch tapes and figure out your weaknesses as Shogun seems to have done. However, I argued that Shogun was going to win this on the ground and if there is one complaint about Shogun's tactics is he should have pressed for more ground action, that might have made the difference.

Just look at the fightmetric analysis: http://fightmetric.com/fights/Machida-Shogun.html

Judges must think the fans are stupid; anyone who understands MMA can see when a score is unjustified. There should be an investigation of the judges, they seem to be on the payroll. One big negative of the UFC is that they let their marketing affect the fight selection and outcome, making "stars" out of Forrest Griffin when they really just had some good match-ups.

UFC 104 Rivera v. Kimmons

Jorge "Conquistador" Rivera is a hardened veteran of the octagon and he has demonstrated his skill and his weaknesses at middleweight. Kimmons has less UFC experience but has been in a lot of fights; although those opponents are not the same. For Rivera, he knows not to make this a BJJ battle and will look to unloads those lefts and rights while Kimmons is trying to set up some offence. My system predicts a difference of less than one point- a statistical tie, in the favour of Rivera.

Strikeforce - Mousasi v. Sokoudjou

Gegard Mousasi is not well known in the USA but he is a skilled fighter that has fought at lower weight classes and dominated opponents. Mousasi is stronger, and he is a more natural puncher so I predict Mousasi will dominate Sokoudjou on the feet and force this into a ground match where he will do worse than Babalu.

Strikeforce- Shields v. Miller

Miller is a seasoned fighter but this fight will look like GSP v Miller as Shields is a good wrestler and will look to take this down for some good 'ol ground and pound. Mayhem Miller has had trouble in the past with strong wrestlers, and tactically this is a bad matchup for him. I enjoy Miller serving up cold revenge on MTV's Bully Beatdown but this time karma is settling the score. My system predicts Shields by a considerable margin.

WEC 43 Jabouin v. Asuncao

Jabouin v. Asuncao - There is not much know about Jabouin by most MMA fans so it is expected that the majority favour Asuncao.  But Yves "The Tiger" Jabouin is fast and disciplined.  My system predicts Jabouin by a considerable margin. (Wrong)

UFC 104 Yushin Okami v. Chael Sonnen

Yushin Okami and Chael Sonnen have a similar skill set and tactics, but Okami is stronger than Rich Franklin and almost submitted Franklin several times.  Neither fighter is a natural boxer so this may become a slow grapple or ground match.  Okami should have the skills to put Sonnen away, and my system predicts Okami by a considerable margin.

UFC 104 Cain Velasquez v. Ben Rothwell

 Cain Velasquez v. Ben Rothwell - This fight is a remake of the Andrei Arlovski v. Ben Rothwell matchup, except Cain Velasquez hasn't been knocked out.  Velasquez does not have the complete skill set of Arlovski but he is a better wrestler and can bang with the toughest, and Rothwell has been knocked out badly.  My system predicts Velasquez by a considerable margin.

Dream 11 Sakuraba V. Rubin Williams

Sakuraba has been in wars with tougher and more rounded opponents than Williams.  As we saw last week in The Ultimate Fighter (Kimbo Slice versus Roy "Big Country" Nelson) that a puncher's chance only happens when they stay on their feet. Look for Sakuraba to use those winging punches to drive in and grapple the boxer.  Of course, Williams knows this, but knowing and defending are two different things. My system predicts Sakuraba by a considerable margin. (Correct )

MFC 22 Macdonald v. Lutter

Macdonald v. Lutter - Jason Macdonald has all the physical tools like Anderson Silva (height, reach, athleticism) to defeat the smaller stockier Travis Lutter. Lutter is notorious for low endurance and mental toughness and so long as MacDonald doesn't rush the fight, allows Lutter to get tired, then eventually he will win. My system predicts Macdonald by a landslide. (Wrong Nick Russell  got this one)

MFC 22 John Alessio v. Luigi Fioravanti

John Alessio v. Luigi Fioravanti - John Alessio is an underrated fighter and Luigi Fioravanti is coming off his first knockout loss  to Anthony "Rumble" Johnson.  Fioravanti's loss to Johnson demonstrated bad tactics against a man with a 78 inch reach (at 170).  My system indicates Alessio will win by a considerable margin. (CORRECT PICK - unlike Nick Russell at http://www.profighting-fans.com/articles/mfc-22-preview_092909.html  )

Rampage Sighting - A Team

http://www.comingsoon.net/news/movienews.php?id=59642

Rampage Jackson has been spotted doing more than arguing with UFC president Dana White.  He is in my hometown of Vancouver BC Canada for the filming of The A Team movie.

UFC 104 Anthony "Rumble" Johnson v. Yoshiyuki "Zenko" Yoshida

Anthony "Rumble" Johnson v. Yoshiyuki "Zenko" Yoshida - Yoshida is now training with Greg Jackson, AKA Yoda, and that will mean he comes into the fight prepared and with a better strategy.  However, "Rumble" Johnson has an 8 inch reach advantage so unless Zenko can teleport onto Johnson's side for another impressive anaconda choke, this will be a quick victory for Anthony "Rumble" Johnson.  My system predicts an overwhelming decision for Johnson