UFC 114 - Rampage vs. Evans

The bad blood coaches "Suga" Rashad Evans and Quinton "Rampage" Jackson are going to settle all the trash talk and hard feelings that is the result of a their feud. They both think they can knock out the other opponent. They both have talent and athleticism. Each man has held the belt and really has one shot to reclaim the title before age and a new crop of up and coming fighters bursts onto the scene.

Rashad Evans is a product of the new wave of MMA training and combined skills. Quinton Jackson is a long time fighter, as he calls himself a true fighter, and has paid his dues. Rashad has lead a sheltered career since the TUF season victory. Rampage has been kicked around on and off the mat.

I favour Rampage Jackson personally, so you may not take my comments as fully partial. However, I have analyzed the fighters and tactics and I can explain why I believe Rampage is going to kick the living snot from Rashad's over used mouth.

Rashad is a product of a good camp with good team mates. He has thrived with "Yoda" Greg Jackson and has delivered on opponents with a better game plan that he sticks to. But his skill lacks creativity. He could not finish Thiago Alves and he had the better of the wrestling match until he got rocked. And then he got rocked and his plans went down hill. Rashad has fast hands, and everyone points to his lightning knockout of Chuck Liddell as proof of his ability. It took Rashad 2 rounds to eventually find one that got through - all the while backing up and avoiding the Iceman's power. Had Rashad missed he was going down to the canvas himself. His game plan was better, he executed as instructed, and he got the knockout as a lucky side effect of the above not the other way around.

Rampage learned his craft on the pay as you go plan; he paid with blood and pain and losses to fearsome opponents at 205. Rampage has defeated better fighters and has survived the likes of Wanderlei Silva and Chuck Liddell. Rampage is stronger, meaner, and gets very angry inside the cage. Just ask powerbomb recipient Ricardo Arona. I point to one fight to tell you just how good Rampage is. When he fought Marvin "Beastman" Eastman, he matched strike for strike and even turned the contest into brawl to wear down Eastman. Eastman is faster and stronger than Rashad Evans. Rampage caught Eastman - the shorter stockier fighter just like Rashad - and clipped him enough to stun him and cause the knockout.

Both fighters have suspect chins and neither wants to go for a nap while the other one parties.
Both fighters have written checks with their mouths that will take a pretty big effort to fulfill. This is the making of a super fight.

I predict Rashad will come in with a game plan to wrestle for top position and try to grind out Rampage. He may try the counter striker plan and look for a takedown or just try and shoot in for the legs. He will be fit and he will be prepared but I think that he is also rattled by the wordplay of Rampage so he is going to be unfocused on the man in front of him. That spells doom for a man who needs to concentrate and stick to a game plan.

I predict Rampage will come out the way he always does, he is prepared for all levels and he tries to defend before unleashing his power. I also predict he will howl. I believe that Rampage believes that he can beat Rashad anywhere so he will feel comfortable to stick to his gameplan - he will look for the opening and creep in with a stunning blow. Quinton will be just as cautious as he was with the Iceman and Wanderlei (3rd meeting) but he knows he can deliver. It is all a matter of patience.

I predict that Rampage and Rashad will dance for a while and test each other out. I believe Rashad will back up and try and provoke a good counter punch situation. Rashad may switch levels to test his wrestling against Rampage. For his part, Rampage will keep things simple - get Rashad close and wobble his legs.

I predict that as soon as Rashad's game plan doesn't work it will be a nerve racking moment when he realized what he is up against. Then the fear and doubt will creep in. Most professions can survive a momentary hesitation - not this one. We will see Rampage find a way onto Rashad's jaw. And then Rashad will wish he had that B.A. Baracus job acting instead of being in the cage with an angry werewolf. I predict Rampage in the second round by standing or ground and pound TKO.

I know I will enjoy this fight.

UFC 113 Mauricio Rua v. Lyoto Machida

At UFC 113, Mauricio Rua and Lyoto Machida will settle the question of which one of them deserved to win that split decision for the light heavyweight title last match. Machida thinks he did enough with some punch flurries and retreating - even running away at some points from Mauricio Shogun Rua - to keep the title. Shogun was satisfied with punishing legs kicks not to lose a bad exchange and then he ended up leaving it to the non-competent judges to score. Big mistake.

Rua has now learned how to outstrike Machida from long range. He came with the better game plan, was fit and hungry and Machida was satisfied to sit back and let the action come to him.

Machida will be prepared for aggressive action this time otherwise he will be roundly criticized like Anderson Silva his friend for being to quick to sit back and defend.

Rua understands Machida and will be ready to defend the strikes and counter strikes. Machida is still adjusting his game tactics to counter those effective lower legs kicks that made him limp to the hospital after the last engagement.

Rua's camp has said they will change the game plan, and I believe them because the element of suprise is a very important factor in finding ways to win: do what your opponent doesn't expect so you throw off his gameplan and make him react a half second behind what is coming next.

I expect this to be a one-sided contest, I envision Machida trying to strike and engage with Rua, while Rua expecting this plan will turn the conflict into a wrestling match first to try and submit Machida. Whether or not this works, Machida will react by changing his gameplan. When Machida is afraid of the takedown, Rua will use the leg kick hesitance to explode for a knockout. I predict this will not go 2 rounds, with Rua the victor.