Strikeforce - Cung Le v. Scott Smith

This match is a test of English breakfast - which one is the bangers and which one is the mash? Both fighters have proven striking and ground skills, and on paper Cung Le has the pedigree advantage. However, this is done in real time and not on paper - Smith is taller, can take a punch to deliver a KO, and is taking this fight seriously. Cung Le is coming off movies and will have ring rust. Strikers leave no room for error - if you are not ready then you are done quickly. I predict Smith will KO Cung Le inside of 5 minutes. (Correct Pick - unlike Pat over at http://www.mmabettingblog.com/2009/12/14/strikeforce-cung-le-vs-scott-smith-prediction/ who underestimated Smith's KO power with that one opportunity )

UFC 106 BJ Penn v. Diego Sanchez

Anyone can win a fight, that's why you can bet on it unlike WWE or TNA. When it comes to all around skill Sanchez is the new breed who is good at everything, but BJ won't be taken down by Sanchez, and he has knockout power - something Sanchez was lucky with once.

If Sanchez gets a good flurry in, he's got a punchers chance- but over time look for the rear naked choke by Penn.

TUF 10 Nelson v. Schaub

I didn't make any predictions about this fight because I don't normally predict for new fighters and I hadn't seen any Schaub fights. But this one went exactly as Roy "Big Country" Nelson wanted it to. I guessed that Schaub would use his athleticism to outjab Nelson and get him frustrated ala Arlovski, but in the end he chose to stand right in front of Nelson and get tagged. I think this says as much about the ultimate fighter show format as it does about the fight - does it really make sense to put a guy with 20 fights in a competition with a bunch of junior fighters? I understand that this show was a Kimbo Slice showcase - and they bent their own format to entertain - but the outcome was in a sense predictable. The most well-rounded, and in this case portly fighter, Roy Nelson won the tournament and the contract. I think this is what they call karma for Dana White - the guy he picked on for being unimpressive steps in and flattens Brendan "the hybrid" Schaub in under 4 minutes. Now Dana has to see Roy's smiling face about twice a year.

Karma is a bitch.

UFC 106 Rumble Johnson v. Josh Koscheck

Johnson is the climbing new guy and "The Kos" was that guy about 3 years ago. Johnson is hungry and comfortable with taking a hit to give a better one. Both have pedigrees in wrestling, but each wants to prove that he can stand and bang. Like Yoshida, Koscheck's only smart strategy is to close in and make a dirty boxing or ground and pound match. Kos has already been knocked out and can't let Johnson drive in with his patented straight right hand. I anticipate Johnson will be able to reach out a touch Kos at will and rebuff any takedown offence. My system predicts Johnson by a considerable margin.

UFC 105 Wilks v. Brown

Brown showed why he has been an underrated fighter since his loss on TUF against Amir Sadollah. Brown showed his speed, strength, endurance, and skill set finishing an outclassed James Wilks. Brown varied his attack and he used the ground minded Wilks strengths against him with a well-timed flying knee.

UFC 105 Couture v. Vera

I don't know how the favoured fighters in the UFC seem to get the real advantages, Couture gets knocked down and in pain and Vera doesn't swarm in and then in the second round Couture had a blatant shorts hold while he smothered Vera against the fence. Vera had Couture in trouble in the first and second rounds, and took down Couture to end round 3. Again, the refs must be crosseyed - or biased. Couture's win can not be an endorsement- he looked incapable of finishing the action. And Vera let a golden opportunity slip through his fingers.

UFC 105 Bisping v. Kang

Michael Bisping, a man that suffers from mental diarrhea and what appears like "little empire syndrome" did get knocked out by Kang in the first round. Luckily Kang spent the rest of the round trying to get to full mount and allowed Bisping back into the fight instead of standing back up in a restart to finish Bisping on the feet. Kang seemed a little confused, he circled to the left when both he and Bisping are orthodox fighters - a little mental lapse for Kang. It seems Bisping gets a second redemption and as it seems to go when Bisping fights in the UK he gets a little extra help from the judges (Sinosic, Matt Hammill, ...) - of UFC marketing spin.

UFC 105 Winner v. Delgado

Andre Winner proved that he should have one TUF when he dismantled Roli Delgado with an overhand right, that dropped Delgado on the first strike and continued to find its mark. Andre Winner was a little sloppy and overconfident, but Delgado had no response to the overhand right and it proved the difference in a TKO for Winner, who looks ready for more than Ross Pearson.

UFC 105 Pearson v. Riley

Riley looked flat and Pearson didn't capitalize on it. The comments from announcers regarding Riley indicate that he was not really loose in the first round and that continued into the second. The fact that Pearson couldn't capitalize on a stiff and hesitant opponent says more about his tactical thinking that it does about Riley. Not an impressive performance by either, TKO by cut for Pearson. It doesn't validate Pearson as much as Grogan and Oldberg claim it is. Beware of UFC market spin.

Favourite Video - The Flying Knee

Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort demonstrates how to shock an awe and opponent when he leaps at the unprepared Terry Martin at Affliction Banned.

Strikeforce - Fedor v. Rogers

I watched the fight between Rogers and Fedor, and it was a good fight. But the one thing I noticed as the fighters were announced was the nervousness and agitation in the face of Brett Rogers that told me he was not likely to win. As Matt Hughes once said, "the fight game is 90% mental" and this is true. It looks like Rogers gave Fedor too much respect and did not treat him badly. He broke Fedor's nose with the first punch but when he felt the power of Fedor he started backing up and that was not a good tactic.

Rogers did so well on the ground and showed he deserved to be there, most people assuming Fedor was going to ground and submit Rogers. Rogers surprised him, that was plain.


Rogers knows he could have one, and did beat himself, and he knows it. He should have swarmed Fedor and wiped him out like Arlovski.

Rogers showed some mental weakness against a truly great opponent. He needs to work on concentration and strike and move to set up the knockout blow.

Rogers like so many before, had the chance to finish Fedor but it demonstrates what a unique MMA artist Fedor is.

UFC 105 Bisping v. Kang

Denis Kang in known to Pride FC followers, and doesn't have any of the British Bisping's big mouth and ego. But he is a serious striker and has all the same tools as Dan Henderson. Look for Bisping to try to strike with him and if Kang hits the right shot Bisping will be out. If not, then on the ground Kang has the edge as a BJJ black belt. My system predicts Kang to win

Strikeforce - Fedor v. Rogers

There is a lot of circular smack talk on the internet about Fedor and Rogers - without a lot of thinking.
Here's reality:
Rogers beat Arlovski because Arlovski was not prepared for the straight attack. Arlovski was beating Fedor for the same reason - tactics. Anyone can take one on the chin for a matt nap. Like a Hail Mary pass can win, all things being equal fighters must come prepared for their opponent's strength and strategy. The fighter that comes in with an unpredicted surprise strategy has the advantage.

Fedor knows how Rogers will attack, and he knows where Rogers is weak.

Rogers knows Fedor's skills, and he knows where Fedor is weak.

All that nonsense about who beat who or who is better is just plain nonsense - it's empty.

Fedor is Fedor's biggest weakness, he thinks he can keep recovering from mistakes, and against a hard puncher that isn't good.

Rogers is confident, but that is his biggest weakness.

Both must expose the weakness and stick to their game plan. The one who sticks to the game plan - the right tactics - will defeat the other guy. I predicted a while back that Rogers will win because hype and previous history means nothing; he has longer arms, stronger, faster, and willing to take a shot to deliver the knockout shot, and is not afraid of the consequences.


As my old karate instructor said, "professionals are predictable, amateurs are dangerous!"

Strikeforce - Pezao v. Fabricio Werdum

This is an interesting heavyweight matchup, Werdum had the skills to compete at the top of UFC, but one knockout to Junior Dos Santos and he's looking for a new home. Pezao is an underrated fighter without a lot of exposure in North America, but he has enough Muay Thai and BJJ to fend off Werdum. Pezao would be a handful for Fedor, and he trains at American Top Team so he has the edge in training camp and tactics. Here is how I see this matchup unfold: Pezao will wait for his moment to swarm Fabricio, expecting some counter punching, and then take this to the ground for some Ground and Pound. My system predicts Pezao by a considerable margin.

Sad to see pezao walk away from a wobbly werdum in the 1st round. He had that fight.e

UFC 104 Machida v. Shogun

According to Lyoto Machida (here) he was superior to Shogun at UFC 104. According to Machida, he was superior but I just watched that fight over with the sound off as he suggested, and he had to change stance at 2:32 of round 2 because his front leg was hurt so badly and at the end of the fight he was wincing in pain from the repeated damage he took. Machida had one flurry where Shogun was backing up and taking damage, but that was in the 3rd round and lasted 20 seconds and then went on to take 7 unanswered leg kicks at the end of the round.

In fact, Herb Dean should have warned and then deducted a point from Lyoto for each round where he violated Rule 29 of the UFC's own rules:

"29. Timidity, including, without limitation, avoiding contact with an opponent, intentionally "

He ran away the whole fight. Had he not been the champion, he would have had a much lower score based on that alone. You can't run away the whole fight and call it "counter punching". I predict Shogun will eat him alive next time.

UFC 104 Shogun Rua v. Lyoto Machida

I just want to comment that Shogun Rua won the first round, by number of strikes, aggression and octagon control and for a counter puncher Machida was not that successful. Machida was in the corner between rounds getting his legs iced that's how much damage he took. Machida's game plan didn't work as I predicted here because he is predictable. You can have the most unorthodox style but in the end people can watch tapes and figure out your weaknesses as Shogun seems to have done. However, I argued that Shogun was going to win this on the ground and if there is one complaint about Shogun's tactics is he should have pressed for more ground action, that might have made the difference.

Just look at the fightmetric analysis: http://fightmetric.com/fights/Machida-Shogun.html

Judges must think the fans are stupid; anyone who understands MMA can see when a score is unjustified. There should be an investigation of the judges, they seem to be on the payroll. One big negative of the UFC is that they let their marketing affect the fight selection and outcome, making "stars" out of Forrest Griffin when they really just had some good match-ups.

UFC 104 Rivera v. Kimmons

Jorge "Conquistador" Rivera is a hardened veteran of the octagon and he has demonstrated his skill and his weaknesses at middleweight. Kimmons has less UFC experience but has been in a lot of fights; although those opponents are not the same. For Rivera, he knows not to make this a BJJ battle and will look to unloads those lefts and rights while Kimmons is trying to set up some offence. My system predicts a difference of less than one point- a statistical tie, in the favour of Rivera.

Strikeforce - Mousasi v. Sokoudjou

Gegard Mousasi is not well known in the USA but he is a skilled fighter that has fought at lower weight classes and dominated opponents. Mousasi is stronger, and he is a more natural puncher so I predict Mousasi will dominate Sokoudjou on the feet and force this into a ground match where he will do worse than Babalu.

Strikeforce- Shields v. Miller

Miller is a seasoned fighter but this fight will look like GSP v Miller as Shields is a good wrestler and will look to take this down for some good 'ol ground and pound. Mayhem Miller has had trouble in the past with strong wrestlers, and tactically this is a bad matchup for him. I enjoy Miller serving up cold revenge on MTV's Bully Beatdown but this time karma is settling the score. My system predicts Shields by a considerable margin.

WEC 43 Jabouin v. Asuncao

Jabouin v. Asuncao - There is not much know about Jabouin by most MMA fans so it is expected that the majority favour Asuncao.  But Yves "The Tiger" Jabouin is fast and disciplined.  My system predicts Jabouin by a considerable margin. (Wrong)

UFC 104 Yushin Okami v. Chael Sonnen

Yushin Okami and Chael Sonnen have a similar skill set and tactics, but Okami is stronger than Rich Franklin and almost submitted Franklin several times.  Neither fighter is a natural boxer so this may become a slow grapple or ground match.  Okami should have the skills to put Sonnen away, and my system predicts Okami by a considerable margin.

UFC 104 Cain Velasquez v. Ben Rothwell

 Cain Velasquez v. Ben Rothwell - This fight is a remake of the Andrei Arlovski v. Ben Rothwell matchup, except Cain Velasquez hasn't been knocked out.  Velasquez does not have the complete skill set of Arlovski but he is a better wrestler and can bang with the toughest, and Rothwell has been knocked out badly.  My system predicts Velasquez by a considerable margin.

Dream 11 Sakuraba V. Rubin Williams

Sakuraba has been in wars with tougher and more rounded opponents than Williams.  As we saw last week in The Ultimate Fighter (Kimbo Slice versus Roy "Big Country" Nelson) that a puncher's chance only happens when they stay on their feet. Look for Sakuraba to use those winging punches to drive in and grapple the boxer.  Of course, Williams knows this, but knowing and defending are two different things. My system predicts Sakuraba by a considerable margin. (Correct )

MFC 22 Macdonald v. Lutter

Macdonald v. Lutter - Jason Macdonald has all the physical tools like Anderson Silva (height, reach, athleticism) to defeat the smaller stockier Travis Lutter. Lutter is notorious for low endurance and mental toughness and so long as MacDonald doesn't rush the fight, allows Lutter to get tired, then eventually he will win. My system predicts Macdonald by a landslide. (Wrong Nick Russell  got this one)

MFC 22 John Alessio v. Luigi Fioravanti

John Alessio v. Luigi Fioravanti - John Alessio is an underrated fighter and Luigi Fioravanti is coming off his first knockout loss  to Anthony "Rumble" Johnson.  Fioravanti's loss to Johnson demonstrated bad tactics against a man with a 78 inch reach (at 170).  My system indicates Alessio will win by a considerable margin. (CORRECT PICK - unlike Nick Russell at http://www.profighting-fans.com/articles/mfc-22-preview_092909.html  )

Rampage Sighting - A Team

http://www.comingsoon.net/news/movienews.php?id=59642

Rampage Jackson has been spotted doing more than arguing with UFC president Dana White.  He is in my hometown of Vancouver BC Canada for the filming of The A Team movie.

UFC 104 Anthony "Rumble" Johnson v. Yoshiyuki "Zenko" Yoshida

Anthony "Rumble" Johnson v. Yoshiyuki "Zenko" Yoshida - Yoshida is now training with Greg Jackson, AKA Yoda, and that will mean he comes into the fight prepared and with a better strategy.  However, "Rumble" Johnson has an 8 inch reach advantage so unless Zenko can teleport onto Johnson's side for another impressive anaconda choke, this will be a quick victory for Anthony "Rumble" Johnson.  My system predicts an overwhelming decision for Johnson

TUF 10 Kimbo v. Nelson

Kimbo v. Nelson - this is an easy fight to call, Kimbo is not rounded enough to survive on the ground and Nelson can submit him fairly easily. My system predicts Nelson.

Dream 11 Sokoudjou v. Sapp

 Sokoudjou v. Sapp - Bob "The Beast" Sapp is an imposing person, and he can put people to sleep but in this matchup it is his lack of takedown defence that will leave him open.  Minowaman (Ikuhisa Minowa) exposed his takedown defence last time and submitted Sapp with an achilles lock.   My system indicates a moderate win for Sokoudjou if he can stay out of range and take Sapp to the mat.

UFC 106 Carwin v. Lesnar

Carwin v. Lesnar - This is a close battle.  After analyzing this contest, it is clear that Carwin is more rounded and from a better camp so he will be prepared. If Lesnar can make this a ground and pound clinic then he is still stronger and that might be all it takes. Carwin can use his larger arsenal of skills to frustrate Lesnar while he is running in.  The problem with bulky muscle is after a while they tire a lot faster than lean muscle so this will either be quick or slow. My system indicates that Lesnar is mentally weaker than Carwin and predicts a Carwin victory with a moderate margin.

WEC 43 Deividas Taurosevicius v. Mark Hominick

Deividas Taurosevicius v. Mark Hominick - Mark "The Machine" Hominick has been in some wars and is an accomplished MMA fighter.  Taurosevicius is a bit of an unknown.  It has been a while since BJJ Ranya Yahya jumped on Hominick's back and choked him in WEC 28 so he has had lots of time to round out his game.  Taurosevicius will look to submit, and Hominick can respond anywhere.  Look for Hominick to punch the grappler everywhere and frustrate submission attempts. My system predicts a resounding victory for Hominick.

UFC 104 Machida v. Rua

Machida v. Rua - This is a tough fight to call, both Brazilians pose a challenge.  Shogun can be explosive and has many more KO's than Machida. Lyoto Machida always comes in with a good game plan and makes few mistakes.  Machida works with Anderson Silva and so the edge goes to Machida on tactics.  Given that neither man has been KO'd in a fight they are both willing to stand and fight.  Neither fighter wants to open up for a takedown and in the process get struck unconcious.  Here is how I see their tactics: Machida is going to counter punch for a weakness, like always, and hope to catch Shogun running in. If Shogun is smart, he will use the strike combo to set up the takedown and make it a BJJ match.  Shogun is hard to submit, Babalu tried for 2 minutes and Sobral is very quick. The problem for Machida is he is predictable.   Rua has submitted bigger and stronger opponents so if he can take this to the ground he will win but it is close. My system indicates a slight edge to Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.

Dream 11

Joachim Hansen v. Shinya Aoki - I predict Joachim Hansen will win; he has been in serious submission positions against some of the best BJJ japanese and weathers the storm.  Look for him to turn a position match into ground and pound and TKO Aoki.

Hong Man Choi v. Minowaman - Hong Man Choi is too powerful and knows not to make this a BJJ match.  He will use his power and arm reach to keep Minowaman away from his legs and TKO the incoming chin.

WEC 41 Brown v. Faber 2

 Brown v. Faber 2 - I predicted Brown.  Same tactics and fighters from the last time, only Brown had the confidence off of the win.  Faber would have no answer.  (CORRECT PICK)

Striikeforce: Carano v. Cyborg

 Carano v. Cyborg - I predicted Cyborg to dominate Carano and force her into a dark tough place where she hasn't been before; being bullied by a stronger woman.  (CORRECT PICK)

UFC Fight Night 19

Guillard v. Diaz  - I predicted Guillard would win, his power and speed would catch Diaz and force him to regain conciousness.  I lost this one  (LOSS) Whiner's note: Had Guillard put Diaz away with that first knockdown this would have been a win ( The first good punch put Diaz on the mat )

Maynard v. Huerta - I predicted Maynard would use his power and wrestling to hammer Huerta.  (CORRECT PICK)

UFC 103 Franklin v. Belfort

Franklin v. Belfort - I predicted Belfort over Franklin. Belfort has the power and speed to overwhelm any weakness so long as his head is in the game.  I predicted with personal problems behind him he will be ready to finish Franklin where Wandelei Silva couldn't.  Franklin is good, but not as natural a striker as Belfort (CORRECT PICK)

Dos Santos v. Cro Cop - I predicted Dos Santos to overwhelm Cro Cop with his strength and speed in a match that was going to start and end on the feet. (CORRECT PICK)

Update:  If you had gone with  http://www.mmabettingpicks.com/2009/09/ufc-103-rich-franklin-vs-vitor-belfort/ , you would be 50% for these two fights. A win on one and a loss on the other.

Liddell .v Couture 3

I predicted Liddell to win based on no real change in skill level and the fact Couture had been knocked out in the previous meeting.

Brett The Grim Rogers v. Fedor Emelianenko

Brett The Grim Rogers v. Fedor Emelianenko - Fedor has a wider experience, has been in the ring against Hong Man Choi, and can submit or strike anyone. The question comes down to does Grim Rogers have the right skills to keep this match on the feet and knock out Fedor? Fedor is not looking in the shape he was and has not fought in the cage which is a big disadvantage. I predict Brett Rogers to use his wrestling and finish Fedor the way Andrei Arlovski was doing before that lucky punch. Rogers to win.

Old Posts UFC 101

Anderson Silva v. Forrest Griffin - this was an easy one and I won some easy money. Griffin isn't in The Spider's league and it turned into a knockout. (CORRECT PICK)

BJ Penn v. Kenny Florian - BJ Penn, no contest because while Florian is well-rounded BJ Penn hits as hard as a heavyweight and his cardio was going to be up top shape after losing to GSP. (CORRECT PICK)

Ricardo Almeida v. Kendall Grove - Almeida is not known to recent MMA fans but he was just too much and is a top level fighter (CORRECT PICK)

Old Posts - Nogueira versus Couture UFC 102

Nogueira versus Couture - I picked Nogueira because he is a bigger fighter that has been in wars with better strikers and wrestlers. Couture is not fit for heavyweight and that will be pronounced against the serious power and submissions of Nogueira (CORRECT PICK)


Thiago Silva versus Keith Jardine - I picked Thiago because he is a seriously strong fighter with very good wrestling. In my humble opinion, Jardine is not a well-rounded fighter and he has been knocked out several times and that seems to be an encouragement for strikers to try and punch out a quick win. (CORRECT PICK)

Liddell .v Couture 2

I predicted Liddell to use his superior striking and improved takedown defense to defeat Couture (CORRECT PICK)