UFC 113 Mauricio Rua v. Lyoto Machida

At UFC 113, Mauricio Rua and Lyoto Machida will settle the question of which one of them deserved to win that split decision for the light heavyweight title last match. Machida thinks he did enough with some punch flurries and retreating - even running away at some points from Mauricio Shogun Rua - to keep the title. Shogun was satisfied with punishing legs kicks not to lose a bad exchange and then he ended up leaving it to the non-competent judges to score. Big mistake.

Rua has now learned how to outstrike Machida from long range. He came with the better game plan, was fit and hungry and Machida was satisfied to sit back and let the action come to him.

Machida will be prepared for aggressive action this time otherwise he will be roundly criticized like Anderson Silva his friend for being to quick to sit back and defend.

Rua understands Machida and will be ready to defend the strikes and counter strikes. Machida is still adjusting his game tactics to counter those effective lower legs kicks that made him limp to the hospital after the last engagement.

Rua's camp has said they will change the game plan, and I believe them because the element of suprise is a very important factor in finding ways to win: do what your opponent doesn't expect so you throw off his gameplan and make him react a half second behind what is coming next.

I expect this to be a one-sided contest, I envision Machida trying to strike and engage with Rua, while Rua expecting this plan will turn the conflict into a wrestling match first to try and submit Machida. Whether or not this works, Machida will react by changing his gameplan. When Machida is afraid of the takedown, Rua will use the leg kick hesitance to explode for a knockout. I predict this will not go 2 rounds, with Rua the victor.

UFC 104 Machida v. Rua

Machida v. Rua - This is a tough fight to call, both Brazilians pose a challenge.  Shogun can be explosive and has many more KO's than Machida. Lyoto Machida always comes in with a good game plan and makes few mistakes.  Machida works with Anderson Silva and so the edge goes to Machida on tactics.  Given that neither man has been KO'd in a fight they are both willing to stand and fight.  Neither fighter wants to open up for a takedown and in the process get struck unconcious.  Here is how I see their tactics: Machida is going to counter punch for a weakness, like always, and hope to catch Shogun running in. If Shogun is smart, he will use the strike combo to set up the takedown and make it a BJJ match.  Shogun is hard to submit, Babalu tried for 2 minutes and Sobral is very quick. The problem for Machida is he is predictable.   Rua has submitted bigger and stronger opponents so if he can take this to the ground he will win but it is close. My system indicates a slight edge to Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.