TUF 10 Kimbo v. Nelson

Kimbo v. Nelson - this is an easy fight to call, Kimbo is not rounded enough to survive on the ground and Nelson can submit him fairly easily. My system predicts Nelson.

Dream 11 Sokoudjou v. Sapp

 Sokoudjou v. Sapp - Bob "The Beast" Sapp is an imposing person, and he can put people to sleep but in this matchup it is his lack of takedown defence that will leave him open.  Minowaman (Ikuhisa Minowa) exposed his takedown defence last time and submitted Sapp with an achilles lock.   My system indicates a moderate win for Sokoudjou if he can stay out of range and take Sapp to the mat.

UFC 106 Carwin v. Lesnar

Carwin v. Lesnar - This is a close battle.  After analyzing this contest, it is clear that Carwin is more rounded and from a better camp so he will be prepared. If Lesnar can make this a ground and pound clinic then he is still stronger and that might be all it takes. Carwin can use his larger arsenal of skills to frustrate Lesnar while he is running in.  The problem with bulky muscle is after a while they tire a lot faster than lean muscle so this will either be quick or slow. My system indicates that Lesnar is mentally weaker than Carwin and predicts a Carwin victory with a moderate margin.

WEC 43 Deividas Taurosevicius v. Mark Hominick

Deividas Taurosevicius v. Mark Hominick - Mark "The Machine" Hominick has been in some wars and is an accomplished MMA fighter.  Taurosevicius is a bit of an unknown.  It has been a while since BJJ Ranya Yahya jumped on Hominick's back and choked him in WEC 28 so he has had lots of time to round out his game.  Taurosevicius will look to submit, and Hominick can respond anywhere.  Look for Hominick to punch the grappler everywhere and frustrate submission attempts. My system predicts a resounding victory for Hominick.

UFC 104 Machida v. Rua

Machida v. Rua - This is a tough fight to call, both Brazilians pose a challenge.  Shogun can be explosive and has many more KO's than Machida. Lyoto Machida always comes in with a good game plan and makes few mistakes.  Machida works with Anderson Silva and so the edge goes to Machida on tactics.  Given that neither man has been KO'd in a fight they are both willing to stand and fight.  Neither fighter wants to open up for a takedown and in the process get struck unconcious.  Here is how I see their tactics: Machida is going to counter punch for a weakness, like always, and hope to catch Shogun running in. If Shogun is smart, he will use the strike combo to set up the takedown and make it a BJJ match.  Shogun is hard to submit, Babalu tried for 2 minutes and Sobral is very quick. The problem for Machida is he is predictable.   Rua has submitted bigger and stronger opponents so if he can take this to the ground he will win but it is close. My system indicates a slight edge to Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.

Dream 11

Joachim Hansen v. Shinya Aoki - I predict Joachim Hansen will win; he has been in serious submission positions against some of the best BJJ japanese and weathers the storm.  Look for him to turn a position match into ground and pound and TKO Aoki.

Hong Man Choi v. Minowaman - Hong Man Choi is too powerful and knows not to make this a BJJ match.  He will use his power and arm reach to keep Minowaman away from his legs and TKO the incoming chin.

WEC 41 Brown v. Faber 2

 Brown v. Faber 2 - I predicted Brown.  Same tactics and fighters from the last time, only Brown had the confidence off of the win.  Faber would have no answer.  (CORRECT PICK)

Striikeforce: Carano v. Cyborg

 Carano v. Cyborg - I predicted Cyborg to dominate Carano and force her into a dark tough place where she hasn't been before; being bullied by a stronger woman.  (CORRECT PICK)

UFC Fight Night 19

Guillard v. Diaz  - I predicted Guillard would win, his power and speed would catch Diaz and force him to regain conciousness.  I lost this one  (LOSS) Whiner's note: Had Guillard put Diaz away with that first knockdown this would have been a win ( The first good punch put Diaz on the mat )

Maynard v. Huerta - I predicted Maynard would use his power and wrestling to hammer Huerta.  (CORRECT PICK)

UFC 103 Franklin v. Belfort

Franklin v. Belfort - I predicted Belfort over Franklin. Belfort has the power and speed to overwhelm any weakness so long as his head is in the game.  I predicted with personal problems behind him he will be ready to finish Franklin where Wandelei Silva couldn't.  Franklin is good, but not as natural a striker as Belfort (CORRECT PICK)

Dos Santos v. Cro Cop - I predicted Dos Santos to overwhelm Cro Cop with his strength and speed in a match that was going to start and end on the feet. (CORRECT PICK)

Update:  If you had gone with  http://www.mmabettingpicks.com/2009/09/ufc-103-rich-franklin-vs-vitor-belfort/ , you would be 50% for these two fights. A win on one and a loss on the other.

Liddell .v Couture 3

I predicted Liddell to win based on no real change in skill level and the fact Couture had been knocked out in the previous meeting.

Brett The Grim Rogers v. Fedor Emelianenko

Brett The Grim Rogers v. Fedor Emelianenko - Fedor has a wider experience, has been in the ring against Hong Man Choi, and can submit or strike anyone. The question comes down to does Grim Rogers have the right skills to keep this match on the feet and knock out Fedor? Fedor is not looking in the shape he was and has not fought in the cage which is a big disadvantage. I predict Brett Rogers to use his wrestling and finish Fedor the way Andrei Arlovski was doing before that lucky punch. Rogers to win.

Old Posts UFC 101

Anderson Silva v. Forrest Griffin - this was an easy one and I won some easy money. Griffin isn't in The Spider's league and it turned into a knockout. (CORRECT PICK)

BJ Penn v. Kenny Florian - BJ Penn, no contest because while Florian is well-rounded BJ Penn hits as hard as a heavyweight and his cardio was going to be up top shape after losing to GSP. (CORRECT PICK)

Ricardo Almeida v. Kendall Grove - Almeida is not known to recent MMA fans but he was just too much and is a top level fighter (CORRECT PICK)

Old Posts - Nogueira versus Couture UFC 102

Nogueira versus Couture - I picked Nogueira because he is a bigger fighter that has been in wars with better strikers and wrestlers. Couture is not fit for heavyweight and that will be pronounced against the serious power and submissions of Nogueira (CORRECT PICK)


Thiago Silva versus Keith Jardine - I picked Thiago because he is a seriously strong fighter with very good wrestling. In my humble opinion, Jardine is not a well-rounded fighter and he has been knocked out several times and that seems to be an encouragement for strikers to try and punch out a quick win. (CORRECT PICK)

Liddell .v Couture 2

I predicted Liddell to use his superior striking and improved takedown defense to defeat Couture (CORRECT PICK)