Strikeforce - Cung Le v. Scott Smith

This match is a test of English breakfast - which one is the bangers and which one is the mash? Both fighters have proven striking and ground skills, and on paper Cung Le has the pedigree advantage. However, this is done in real time and not on paper - Smith is taller, can take a punch to deliver a KO, and is taking this fight seriously. Cung Le is coming off movies and will have ring rust. Strikers leave no room for error - if you are not ready then you are done quickly. I predict Smith will KO Cung Le inside of 5 minutes. (Correct Pick - unlike Pat over at http://www.mmabettingblog.com/2009/12/14/strikeforce-cung-le-vs-scott-smith-prediction/ who underestimated Smith's KO power with that one opportunity )

UFC 106 BJ Penn v. Diego Sanchez

Anyone can win a fight, that's why you can bet on it unlike WWE or TNA. When it comes to all around skill Sanchez is the new breed who is good at everything, but BJ won't be taken down by Sanchez, and he has knockout power - something Sanchez was lucky with once.

If Sanchez gets a good flurry in, he's got a punchers chance- but over time look for the rear naked choke by Penn.

TUF 10 Nelson v. Schaub

I didn't make any predictions about this fight because I don't normally predict for new fighters and I hadn't seen any Schaub fights. But this one went exactly as Roy "Big Country" Nelson wanted it to. I guessed that Schaub would use his athleticism to outjab Nelson and get him frustrated ala Arlovski, but in the end he chose to stand right in front of Nelson and get tagged. I think this says as much about the ultimate fighter show format as it does about the fight - does it really make sense to put a guy with 20 fights in a competition with a bunch of junior fighters? I understand that this show was a Kimbo Slice showcase - and they bent their own format to entertain - but the outcome was in a sense predictable. The most well-rounded, and in this case portly fighter, Roy Nelson won the tournament and the contract. I think this is what they call karma for Dana White - the guy he picked on for being unimpressive steps in and flattens Brendan "the hybrid" Schaub in under 4 minutes. Now Dana has to see Roy's smiling face about twice a year.

Karma is a bitch.