UFC-126 Anderson Silva v. Vitor Belfort

UFC 126 is the event where Anderson Silva loses his belt, a championship he has held for 12 fights.

Anderson Silva has all the tools and a very relaxed style. His style is well known and predictable. Chael Sonnen was moments away from defeating Anderson Silva when he got caught. That is like a big bull's eye over Anderson Silva proclaiming he is ripe for defeat. Anderson was lucky last time, and that's the first time in a while that can be said. He doesn't take Vitor seriously and that will be his undoing.

Vitor Belfort has had mental toughness problems in the past, but his recent streak of calm cool dissection of tough opponents demonstrates he is ready for Anderson Silva. Vitor trained with Anderson and so he knows tactics and training from inside the other camp.

Look for Vitor to explode on Anderson in the opening minutes, look for the opening, and rush right over Anderson to a KO victory. He defeated Rich Franklin in the same manner, he will be patient and pick his spot.

UFC 123 Rampage v. Machida

Rampage Jackson has all the right factors in his favor to beat Machida. The so-called Machida era was nothing more than a marketing ploy. Machida was a man who used a novel technique to be unpredictable and uncommon so that he was able to overmatch unprepared opponents.

But here's the reality Joe Rogan, the evolution of fighting in the UFC has transpired because novel tactics were introduced and had a limited advantage. Of course, the rest learn from the new techniques and adapt. Shogun demonstrated that just bowling into Machida was enough to neutralize that advantage. And so the evolution moves on.

And Rampage is the master of bowling through opponents. If Rampage learned his lesson from his last fight against Rashad Evans, he will not respect the skills of Machida and move in for the inglorious kill from the start. His tactics will be to close on and destroy Machida. As Machida backs up to regain long range he backs straight up. This will be a hard habit to break. Rampage has watched the video. He knows Machida can be knocked out and so he will be able to defeat him just by closing that distance and weather the oncoming shots. Shogun weathered the storm, and so can Rampage.

Rampage was sufficiently unhappy with his performance in the last fight to motivate him to train. Machida left his last fight believing it was not a bad defeat.

If Machida has not learned his lesson, then expect a first round KO / TKO by Rampage. I predict a Rampage victory, by KO, in any round.

UFC 121 Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez

Brock Lesnar has elevated himself to the toughest SOB on the planet. Well he was a round away from being KOed by Shane Carwin. That self importance may make him an elite athlete, but he needs reality as well.

Tactically, Brock Lesnar wants to make this a simple wrestling match where he uses his size and strength to dominate and suppress Cain Velasquez. So he needs to close the distance and make it very hard for and offence. Brock wants to keep things simple and refuse all the dangerous conditions.

For Cain, the task is to stay at long range and dance in and out of control while picking his moves and his shots. He does not want to come into close range or get stuck in a corner without an exist strategy.


As for the intangibles, Cain has not been under the pressure of a 5 round fight in the past, but neither has Brock really - Couture doesn't count since he was really a skilled light heavyweight. And Brock has not recovered from a wicked combination of strikes like the one that put Nogueira onto the mat for the count.

From a matchup perspective the fight favours Velasquez: Brock has to close the distance and dominate but Cain has the speed and skill to attack and retreat at will. If Cain is smart he will feint in and out of range and frustrate the champ. And then when Brock is frustrated and behind in points the mistakes will happen and the lights will go out. Expect Cain to win in the third by KO or ref stoppage.

UFC 114 - Rampage vs. Evans

The bad blood coaches "Suga" Rashad Evans and Quinton "Rampage" Jackson are going to settle all the trash talk and hard feelings that is the result of a their feud. They both think they can knock out the other opponent. They both have talent and athleticism. Each man has held the belt and really has one shot to reclaim the title before age and a new crop of up and coming fighters bursts onto the scene.

Rashad Evans is a product of the new wave of MMA training and combined skills. Quinton Jackson is a long time fighter, as he calls himself a true fighter, and has paid his dues. Rashad has lead a sheltered career since the TUF season victory. Rampage has been kicked around on and off the mat.

I favour Rampage Jackson personally, so you may not take my comments as fully partial. However, I have analyzed the fighters and tactics and I can explain why I believe Rampage is going to kick the living snot from Rashad's over used mouth.

Rashad is a product of a good camp with good team mates. He has thrived with "Yoda" Greg Jackson and has delivered on opponents with a better game plan that he sticks to. But his skill lacks creativity. He could not finish Thiago Alves and he had the better of the wrestling match until he got rocked. And then he got rocked and his plans went down hill. Rashad has fast hands, and everyone points to his lightning knockout of Chuck Liddell as proof of his ability. It took Rashad 2 rounds to eventually find one that got through - all the while backing up and avoiding the Iceman's power. Had Rashad missed he was going down to the canvas himself. His game plan was better, he executed as instructed, and he got the knockout as a lucky side effect of the above not the other way around.

Rampage learned his craft on the pay as you go plan; he paid with blood and pain and losses to fearsome opponents at 205. Rampage has defeated better fighters and has survived the likes of Wanderlei Silva and Chuck Liddell. Rampage is stronger, meaner, and gets very angry inside the cage. Just ask powerbomb recipient Ricardo Arona. I point to one fight to tell you just how good Rampage is. When he fought Marvin "Beastman" Eastman, he matched strike for strike and even turned the contest into brawl to wear down Eastman. Eastman is faster and stronger than Rashad Evans. Rampage caught Eastman - the shorter stockier fighter just like Rashad - and clipped him enough to stun him and cause the knockout.

Both fighters have suspect chins and neither wants to go for a nap while the other one parties.
Both fighters have written checks with their mouths that will take a pretty big effort to fulfill. This is the making of a super fight.

I predict Rashad will come in with a game plan to wrestle for top position and try to grind out Rampage. He may try the counter striker plan and look for a takedown or just try and shoot in for the legs. He will be fit and he will be prepared but I think that he is also rattled by the wordplay of Rampage so he is going to be unfocused on the man in front of him. That spells doom for a man who needs to concentrate and stick to a game plan.

I predict Rampage will come out the way he always does, he is prepared for all levels and he tries to defend before unleashing his power. I also predict he will howl. I believe that Rampage believes that he can beat Rashad anywhere so he will feel comfortable to stick to his gameplan - he will look for the opening and creep in with a stunning blow. Quinton will be just as cautious as he was with the Iceman and Wanderlei (3rd meeting) but he knows he can deliver. It is all a matter of patience.

I predict that Rampage and Rashad will dance for a while and test each other out. I believe Rashad will back up and try and provoke a good counter punch situation. Rashad may switch levels to test his wrestling against Rampage. For his part, Rampage will keep things simple - get Rashad close and wobble his legs.

I predict that as soon as Rashad's game plan doesn't work it will be a nerve racking moment when he realized what he is up against. Then the fear and doubt will creep in. Most professions can survive a momentary hesitation - not this one. We will see Rampage find a way onto Rashad's jaw. And then Rashad will wish he had that B.A. Baracus job acting instead of being in the cage with an angry werewolf. I predict Rampage in the second round by standing or ground and pound TKO.

I know I will enjoy this fight.

UFC 113 Mauricio Rua v. Lyoto Machida

At UFC 113, Mauricio Rua and Lyoto Machida will settle the question of which one of them deserved to win that split decision for the light heavyweight title last match. Machida thinks he did enough with some punch flurries and retreating - even running away at some points from Mauricio Shogun Rua - to keep the title. Shogun was satisfied with punishing legs kicks not to lose a bad exchange and then he ended up leaving it to the non-competent judges to score. Big mistake.

Rua has now learned how to outstrike Machida from long range. He came with the better game plan, was fit and hungry and Machida was satisfied to sit back and let the action come to him.

Machida will be prepared for aggressive action this time otherwise he will be roundly criticized like Anderson Silva his friend for being to quick to sit back and defend.

Rua understands Machida and will be ready to defend the strikes and counter strikes. Machida is still adjusting his game tactics to counter those effective lower legs kicks that made him limp to the hospital after the last engagement.

Rua's camp has said they will change the game plan, and I believe them because the element of suprise is a very important factor in finding ways to win: do what your opponent doesn't expect so you throw off his gameplan and make him react a half second behind what is coming next.

I expect this to be a one-sided contest, I envision Machida trying to strike and engage with Rua, while Rua expecting this plan will turn the conflict into a wrestling match first to try and submit Machida. Whether or not this works, Machida will react by changing his gameplan. When Machida is afraid of the takedown, Rua will use the leg kick hesitance to explode for a knockout. I predict this will not go 2 rounds, with Rua the victor.

Strikeforce - Gegard Mousasi v. Mo Lawal

This matchup will be more interesting, I believe, than the main event. Mo Lawal is a converted wrestler looking to parlay his cockiness into gold; Mousasi is an ever-improving force who has trained with the best and prides himself on being a consummate warrior. Lawal has never faced a well-rounded fighter at the top of the game - so this will be a real coming out party for Mo "King" Lawal.

The best tactics for Lawal will be to rediscover wrestling and make this a ground and pound affair. I predict that when Lawal gets Mousasi to the ground - he will find the arm bar and knee bar attempts very troubling. That will make him pause. Mousasi has been pressed by larger and faster grapplers like Sokoudjou so Mousasi will not be phased by it. On the feet, look for Mousasi to stick and move before giving "King" Mo Lawal a taste of top flight competition.

This may be a long drawn out contest, but I predict it will go Mousasi's way.

Strikeforce - Dan Henderson v. Jake Shields

Dan Henderson was once described by Randy Couture as a man that, once he got a hold of you, you needed to ask nicely to get him to let go. Hendo is more than a match for Jake Shields, in wrestling or in striking. Hendo wants to prove something now that the UFC cut him loose and he wants to demonstrate why that was a big mistake. I think that Hendo could have beat Anderson a second time, and perhaps he is figuring his value will go up when he wins against some other talented fighters. While I don't think Hendo is the same as in the Pride days, and he may not have enough tricks left up his sleave, but he is one of the original RAW wrestlers who is as tough as they come.

Jake Shields is a young fighter with a long career ahead of him. If he comes in with the right training camp and right tactics I can see a speedy victory for Shields. His speed and cardio vascular could exploit a quick weakness. His best tactics would be to make this a striking match and keep Hendo at reach and on the defensive while he looks for that chin. Unfortunately, Shields is not an exceptional striker yet and this seems like a feat too hard to pull off. Remember, Hendo knocked out Wanderlei Silva with a wild punch that no one expected - especially the axe murderer Wanderlei. Sooner or later a striking exchange would end with a hard left and then a sound nap.

I see this fight going where Dan Henderson wants it to and then look for some old school ground and pound. Hendo will be too much for the younger fighter. I predict a Hendo victory inside 2 rounds.