Strikeforce - Cung Le v. Scott Smith

This match is a test of English breakfast - which one is the bangers and which one is the mash? Both fighters have proven striking and ground skills, and on paper Cung Le has the pedigree advantage. However, this is done in real time and not on paper - Smith is taller, can take a punch to deliver a KO, and is taking this fight seriously. Cung Le is coming off movies and will have ring rust. Strikers leave no room for error - if you are not ready then you are done quickly. I predict Smith will KO Cung Le inside of 5 minutes. (Correct Pick - unlike Pat over at http://www.mmabettingblog.com/2009/12/14/strikeforce-cung-le-vs-scott-smith-prediction/ who underestimated Smith's KO power with that one opportunity )

UFC 106 BJ Penn v. Diego Sanchez

Anyone can win a fight, that's why you can bet on it unlike WWE or TNA. When it comes to all around skill Sanchez is the new breed who is good at everything, but BJ won't be taken down by Sanchez, and he has knockout power - something Sanchez was lucky with once.

If Sanchez gets a good flurry in, he's got a punchers chance- but over time look for the rear naked choke by Penn.

TUF 10 Nelson v. Schaub

I didn't make any predictions about this fight because I don't normally predict for new fighters and I hadn't seen any Schaub fights. But this one went exactly as Roy "Big Country" Nelson wanted it to. I guessed that Schaub would use his athleticism to outjab Nelson and get him frustrated ala Arlovski, but in the end he chose to stand right in front of Nelson and get tagged. I think this says as much about the ultimate fighter show format as it does about the fight - does it really make sense to put a guy with 20 fights in a competition with a bunch of junior fighters? I understand that this show was a Kimbo Slice showcase - and they bent their own format to entertain - but the outcome was in a sense predictable. The most well-rounded, and in this case portly fighter, Roy Nelson won the tournament and the contract. I think this is what they call karma for Dana White - the guy he picked on for being unimpressive steps in and flattens Brendan "the hybrid" Schaub in under 4 minutes. Now Dana has to see Roy's smiling face about twice a year.

Karma is a bitch.

UFC 106 Rumble Johnson v. Josh Koscheck

Johnson is the climbing new guy and "The Kos" was that guy about 3 years ago. Johnson is hungry and comfortable with taking a hit to give a better one. Both have pedigrees in wrestling, but each wants to prove that he can stand and bang. Like Yoshida, Koscheck's only smart strategy is to close in and make a dirty boxing or ground and pound match. Kos has already been knocked out and can't let Johnson drive in with his patented straight right hand. I anticipate Johnson will be able to reach out a touch Kos at will and rebuff any takedown offence. My system predicts Johnson by a considerable margin.

UFC 105 Wilks v. Brown

Brown showed why he has been an underrated fighter since his loss on TUF against Amir Sadollah. Brown showed his speed, strength, endurance, and skill set finishing an outclassed James Wilks. Brown varied his attack and he used the ground minded Wilks strengths against him with a well-timed flying knee.

UFC 105 Couture v. Vera

I don't know how the favoured fighters in the UFC seem to get the real advantages, Couture gets knocked down and in pain and Vera doesn't swarm in and then in the second round Couture had a blatant shorts hold while he smothered Vera against the fence. Vera had Couture in trouble in the first and second rounds, and took down Couture to end round 3. Again, the refs must be crosseyed - or biased. Couture's win can not be an endorsement- he looked incapable of finishing the action. And Vera let a golden opportunity slip through his fingers.

UFC 105 Bisping v. Kang

Michael Bisping, a man that suffers from mental diarrhea and what appears like "little empire syndrome" did get knocked out by Kang in the first round. Luckily Kang spent the rest of the round trying to get to full mount and allowed Bisping back into the fight instead of standing back up in a restart to finish Bisping on the feet. Kang seemed a little confused, he circled to the left when both he and Bisping are orthodox fighters - a little mental lapse for Kang. It seems Bisping gets a second redemption and as it seems to go when Bisping fights in the UK he gets a little extra help from the judges (Sinosic, Matt Hammill, ...) - of UFC marketing spin.