UFC 104 Machida v. Rua

Machida v. Rua - This is a tough fight to call, both Brazilians pose a challenge.  Shogun can be explosive and has many more KO's than Machida. Lyoto Machida always comes in with a good game plan and makes few mistakes.  Machida works with Anderson Silva and so the edge goes to Machida on tactics.  Given that neither man has been KO'd in a fight they are both willing to stand and fight.  Neither fighter wants to open up for a takedown and in the process get struck unconcious.  Here is how I see their tactics: Machida is going to counter punch for a weakness, like always, and hope to catch Shogun running in. If Shogun is smart, he will use the strike combo to set up the takedown and make it a BJJ match.  Shogun is hard to submit, Babalu tried for 2 minutes and Sobral is very quick. The problem for Machida is he is predictable.   Rua has submitted bigger and stronger opponents so if he can take this to the ground he will win but it is close. My system indicates a slight edge to Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.