Yi Long: Future MMA Champion?

Hello;

I don't post much on the ideas of mixed martial arts as I got a little bored of it and the sport has matured to the point that differences are small between fighters and styles.  Today, I return from hermitism to declare my respect for Chinese Shaolin fighter Yi Long.

Yi Long


I think if he developed a ground game he would become a UFC champion in no time.

UFC-126 Anderson Silva v. Vitor Belfort

UFC 126 is the event where Anderson Silva loses his belt, a championship he has held for 12 fights.

Anderson Silva has all the tools and a very relaxed style. His style is well known and predictable. Chael Sonnen was moments away from defeating Anderson Silva when he got caught. That is like a big bull's eye over Anderson Silva proclaiming he is ripe for defeat. Anderson was lucky last time, and that's the first time in a while that can be said. He doesn't take Vitor seriously and that will be his undoing.

Vitor Belfort has had mental toughness problems in the past, but his recent streak of calm cool dissection of tough opponents demonstrates he is ready for Anderson Silva. Vitor trained with Anderson and so he knows tactics and training from inside the other camp.

Look for Vitor to explode on Anderson in the opening minutes, look for the opening, and rush right over Anderson to a KO victory. He defeated Rich Franklin in the same manner, he will be patient and pick his spot.

UFC 114 - Rampage vs. Evans

The bad blood coaches "Suga" Rashad Evans and Quinton "Rampage" Jackson are going to settle all the trash talk and hard feelings that is the result of a their feud. They both think they can knock out the other opponent. They both have talent and athleticism. Each man has held the belt and really has one shot to reclaim the title before age and a new crop of up and coming fighters bursts onto the scene.

Rashad Evans is a product of the new wave of MMA training and combined skills. Quinton Jackson is a long time fighter, as he calls himself a true fighter, and has paid his dues. Rashad has lead a sheltered career since the TUF season victory. Rampage has been kicked around on and off the mat.

I favour Rampage Jackson personally, so you may not take my comments as fully partial. However, I have analyzed the fighters and tactics and I can explain why I believe Rampage is going to kick the living snot from Rashad's over used mouth.

Rashad is a product of a good camp with good team mates. He has thrived with "Yoda" Greg Jackson and has delivered on opponents with a better game plan that he sticks to. But his skill lacks creativity. He could not finish Thiago Alves and he had the better of the wrestling match until he got rocked. And then he got rocked and his plans went down hill. Rashad has fast hands, and everyone points to his lightning knockout of Chuck Liddell as proof of his ability. It took Rashad 2 rounds to eventually find one that got through - all the while backing up and avoiding the Iceman's power. Had Rashad missed he was going down to the canvas himself. His game plan was better, he executed as instructed, and he got the knockout as a lucky side effect of the above not the other way around.

Rampage learned his craft on the pay as you go plan; he paid with blood and pain and losses to fearsome opponents at 205. Rampage has defeated better fighters and has survived the likes of Wanderlei Silva and Chuck Liddell. Rampage is stronger, meaner, and gets very angry inside the cage. Just ask powerbomb recipient Ricardo Arona. I point to one fight to tell you just how good Rampage is. When he fought Marvin "Beastman" Eastman, he matched strike for strike and even turned the contest into brawl to wear down Eastman. Eastman is faster and stronger than Rashad Evans. Rampage caught Eastman - the shorter stockier fighter just like Rashad - and clipped him enough to stun him and cause the knockout.

Both fighters have suspect chins and neither wants to go for a nap while the other one parties.
Both fighters have written checks with their mouths that will take a pretty big effort to fulfill. This is the making of a super fight.

I predict Rashad will come in with a game plan to wrestle for top position and try to grind out Rampage. He may try the counter striker plan and look for a takedown or just try and shoot in for the legs. He will be fit and he will be prepared but I think that he is also rattled by the wordplay of Rampage so he is going to be unfocused on the man in front of him. That spells doom for a man who needs to concentrate and stick to a game plan.

I predict Rampage will come out the way he always does, he is prepared for all levels and he tries to defend before unleashing his power. I also predict he will howl. I believe that Rampage believes that he can beat Rashad anywhere so he will feel comfortable to stick to his gameplan - he will look for the opening and creep in with a stunning blow. Quinton will be just as cautious as he was with the Iceman and Wanderlei (3rd meeting) but he knows he can deliver. It is all a matter of patience.

I predict that Rampage and Rashad will dance for a while and test each other out. I believe Rashad will back up and try and provoke a good counter punch situation. Rashad may switch levels to test his wrestling against Rampage. For his part, Rampage will keep things simple - get Rashad close and wobble his legs.

I predict that as soon as Rashad's game plan doesn't work it will be a nerve racking moment when he realized what he is up against. Then the fear and doubt will creep in. Most professions can survive a momentary hesitation - not this one. We will see Rampage find a way onto Rashad's jaw. And then Rashad will wish he had that B.A. Baracus job acting instead of being in the cage with an angry werewolf. I predict Rampage in the second round by standing or ground and pound TKO.

I know I will enjoy this fight.

UFC 112 Anderson Silva v. Demian Maia

This contest was not supposed to happen, but when an injury forced a new competitor Demian Maia was dropped into the pit with the most experienced striker on the planet. It doesn't take a crystal ball to see that Demian Maia, who lost by one punch to Nate Marquardt, is unlikely to win. Demian Maia has a chance to win, but he has to teleport onto the side of Anderson Silva and then roll him to the ground. It is a widely held belief that Anderson will be beaten on the ground, like Ryo Chonan's incredible move. I always thought it would be Dan Henderson to roll him over and pound him to sleep.

Anderson Silva has long arms and so he's in trouble when you get in close like Hendo tried to do.

Demian Maia's best strategy is to forget striking altogether and work on his wrestling. He needs to drive in and avoid the straight right while he is aiming for a double leg takedown. Maia needs to push Silva into the fence to avoid the extra blows and then he needs to isolate one limb from the rest. Silva has lots of weaknesses, but other fighters just don't get a chance to exploit them.

Post Fight Analysis

After reviewing the fight, Demian Maia should have listened to me. If he came in ready to charge and wrestle that fight would have been a whole lot more interesting instead of embarrassing.

UFN Gleison Tibau v. Caol Uno

Gleison Tibau and Caol Uno come from wrestling / grappling backgrounds so this is a technique matchup rather than a striker versus grappler contest. This kind of matchup produces two things: sheer boredom or a thrilling fight. Either someone gets clipped early and this fight ends in a surprise knockout or they will roll like dung beetles trying to get behind each other and squeeze the consciousness clean. I am hoping for fireworks, but Gleison Tibau has been a decision master in the recent past like he can't find the right strategy to win. This indicates a weaker mental strength. Caol Uno rolls for broke sometimes and if he comes in with the right strategy he may surprise Tibau. I think Uno's best tactics will be to explode and look for the opening and gain the back of Tibau for a rear naked choke. Tibau is a larger fighter, so I predict he will use his power advantage to smother Uno and keep Uno in jeopardy. I predict Tibau by decision.

UFN Nate "Rock" Quarry v. Jorge "Conquistador Rivera

This should be one of the best fights of the night, right before Takanori Gomi puts Kenflo's lights out. Nate and Jorge are UFC fixtures with long and violent histories. Each has faced the top tier that the UFC has to offer and only lost by a little. In terms of overall skill, Rivera has a better striker style and that means he does have the advantage. But in the end, Nate Quarry will be the fitter and more durable fighter. I predict Nate Quarry by either a TKO/KO or a unanimous decision.

UFN Ross Pearson v. Dennis Siver

Both Siver and Pearson are up and coming fighters in the UFC, both are hoping to make it into the upper crust of lightweight fighters. Pearson is better known from the ultimate fighter TV show, but I was impressed with Siver's striking skill. Pearson will try and set the pace and grind out this fight. But I think he has bitten off a little more than he can chew or swallow. Look for Siver to punish Pearson slogging in with a pinpoint kick that sets Pearson on his back. I predict a win for Siver, perhaps by TKO.

UFN Stefan Struve v. Roy "Big Country" Nelson

Stefan Struve poses a serious challenge to Roy "Big Country" Nelson. Like Paul Buentello before, Struve's chin is hard to hit from the bottom half of a ladder so this will not be an easy affair. What is going in Roy "Big Country" Nelson's favour is that he is a better grappler that Paul Buentello. Big Country's best strategy will be to make this a wrestling match and look for an ankle lock. Struve will know this, and he should come prepared to circle away and fire jabs into that oncoming mullet. I predict Struve by decision.

UFN Kenny "Kenflo" Florian v. Takanori "Fireball Kid" Gomi

Kenny "Kenflo" Florian is trying to find a purpose since losing to BJ Penn. Takanori "Fireball Kid" Gomi is a real challenge. Florian is well rounded, but Gomi is no stranger to danger and has seen it all. Kenny Florian weakness is punching power; he is not a hip-puncher. Florian does not have knockout power. Gomi, on the other hand, does have dynamite in his hands. BJ Penn ran Florian around with his KO power and look for Gomi to do the same. Gomi will use the threat of a one punch dirt nap to bully Florian and keep him back on his heels. I predict Gomi by KO or Decision to defeat Florian.

UFC 111 Georges "Rush" St. Pierre v. Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy

The welterweight belt is on the line at UFC 111, with Georges "Rush" St. Pierre returning from an injury layoff to face a pompous and brash striker Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy. From the outside this looks like a karate striker versus muay thai striker match. But GSP has found a natural talent for wrestling that he has used to dominate larger stronger wrestlers. GSP's best tactics will be to smother and ground and pound Hardy into submission. GSP is not afraid of heavy hands. Hardy is not as well rounded and he will look to get that one nasty blow in to TKO/KO GSP. I predict GSP will dominate from whereever he wants and grind Hardy to a 3rd round submission or TKO.

UFC 111 Jim Miller v. Mark Bocek

Jim Miller and Mark Bocek is a classic Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Black Belt versus a converted wrestler contest. Mark Bocek has been in the UFC for a while now, and has not broken through the journeymen gatekeeper in the lightweight division. Bocek's best chance occurs if he can keep Jim Miller on the mat looking for the next submission. Jim Miller has better striking and will make it difficult for Bocek to grapple for the takedown. Miller's best tactics will be to circle away and counter punch until an opening appears to finish a frustrated Bocek. My system predicts a Miller victory

UFN Brandon Vera v. Jon Jones

Brandon Vera was Jon Jones 3 year ago when he burst onto the scene and demonstrated talent and arrogance - and he won. Now Vera faces elimination from contention, so his back is against the wall and he needs a win. Jones has a few years to take his time and mature. Jones has shown wild striking that paid off against limited talent. My system predicts Vera to rise to occasion and TKO / KO Jones inside 2 rounds

UFN Junior dos Santos v. Gabriel Gonzaga

Junior dos Santos and Gabriel Gonzaga are two fearsome heavyweights. The only thing that separates them is the advantage of help. Santos trains with Anderson Silva and Nogueira at Black house and he has come into every fight prepared to win and win decisively. Gonzaga is not as prepared and when he had the chance at the belt against Couture he looked mentally unready for the challenge. Compared to Couture, dos Santos is more than able to flatten him quick. Santos flattened Fabricio Werdum decisively. Santos will look to keep the fight standing and Gonzaga may as well, but that's a very bad idea for Gonzaga. My system predicts dos Santos victory but it will be close.

UFC 111 Carwin v. Mir

Carwin was rocked by Gabriel Gonzaga before eventually landing the KO blow. Carwin's chin is suspect. I don't think he wants that- a stand up war with Frank Mir. His best strategy is to out wrestle Mir in a textbook rehash of Mir v. Lesnar 2. Carwin wants to muscle Mir to the fence and then suppress and silence him. I predict Carwin by an ugly ground and pound TKO or decision.

UFN Live Kongo v. Buentello

Cheick Kongo had a chance to disintegrate Velasquez and didn't - mainly because he had not learned the circle away tactics of the best strikers like Liddell. He has a chance to prove he is a superior striker and Buentello will engage. I predict Kongo by KO, either first or second round.

UFC 110 Wanderlei v. Bisping

Wanderlei is a feared, balls to the wall, competitor who doesn't let a little thing like caution stop him from mauling opponents. At least until he met the UFC, where the more disciplined LHW challengers were able to give him a losing streak.

Bisping is a UFC marketing machine product, who was given hand picked opponents - Sinosic who still worked IT and had just flown in for the fight - to give him a leg up at LHW. Henderson exposed "The Count" as a striker without KO power.

Wanderlei is best when he charges - juggernaut style - and does not let his opponent circle away. "The Axe Murderer" will run Bisping over just like he did Jardine. My system predicts Wanderlei inside 3 minutes to put Bisping out for the count.

WINNER

[POST fight update - wow Bisping is such a loser, he actually thought he won that fight? One eye gouge, low kick, and he got dropped twice by punch combos. Bisping almost fell face first into the canvas. This guy is unbelievable- what an ego. And reaffirms my belief he is a marketing ploy.]

UFC 108 Dos Santos v. Yvel

Yvel is old and tired. dos Santos is young and hungry, he believes he should have a title shot and will look to make an impression by making several impressions in Gilbert Yvel's face. Look for a Dos Santos win by KO inside of 2 rounds.

UFC 108 Lauzon v. Stout

Sam Stout is a very good kickboxer and he is learning the ground game all the time. but Lauzon is a crafty and fast submission artist and it won't take him long to penetrate the stirking defenses and make this a jiu jitsu match. I predict Lauzon by subby in the second.

UFC 108 Evans v. Silva

Rashad Evans has a lot of talent to be boastful about, and if he returns to the ground game that brought him to the UFC, then he may have more to brag about. But, Thiago Silva is taller, faster and a well-rounded fighter, who can submit but prefers to bang. Evans was almost caught in a submission in his TUF days, so I see this fight ending by Silva submission if Evans is not careful or a Thiago Silva KO if Evans can't take this to the ground. I predict Thiago Silva to win wherever this fight goes.

TUF 10 Nelson v. Schaub

I didn't make any predictions about this fight because I don't normally predict for new fighters and I hadn't seen any Schaub fights. But this one went exactly as Roy "Big Country" Nelson wanted it to. I guessed that Schaub would use his athleticism to outjab Nelson and get him frustrated ala Arlovski, but in the end he chose to stand right in front of Nelson and get tagged. I think this says as much about the ultimate fighter show format as it does about the fight - does it really make sense to put a guy with 20 fights in a competition with a bunch of junior fighters? I understand that this show was a Kimbo Slice showcase - and they bent their own format to entertain - but the outcome was in a sense predictable. The most well-rounded, and in this case portly fighter, Roy Nelson won the tournament and the contract. I think this is what they call karma for Dana White - the guy he picked on for being unimpressive steps in and flattens Brendan "the hybrid" Schaub in under 4 minutes. Now Dana has to see Roy's smiling face about twice a year.

Karma is a bitch.