UFC 111 Georges "Rush" St. Pierre v. Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy

The welterweight belt is on the line at UFC 111, with Georges "Rush" St. Pierre returning from an injury layoff to face a pompous and brash striker Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy. From the outside this looks like a karate striker versus muay thai striker match. But GSP has found a natural talent for wrestling that he has used to dominate larger stronger wrestlers. GSP's best tactics will be to smother and ground and pound Hardy into submission. GSP is not afraid of heavy hands. Hardy is not as well rounded and he will look to get that one nasty blow in to TKO/KO GSP. I predict GSP will dominate from whereever he wants and grind Hardy to a 3rd round submission or TKO.

UFC 111 Matt "The Immortal" Brown v. Ricardo "The Big Dog" Almeida

Matt Brown is part of the new wave of MMA fighters. Ricardo Almeida is one of the old school BJJ fighters that can claim to be part of the founders of the MMA movement. Matt Brown is a rounded striker and grappler. Almeida has submitted strong competitors like Nate Marquardt. But Matt Brown is more than a strong MMA fighter, he has determination to win and powers through pain and adversity. While Brown has lost by arm bar to Amir Sadollah, he has had 2 years of training to get out of that trap. Brown's best tactics are to keep this on the feet and look for the KO, and if that fails grind out a win in top position while keeping out of the submission. Almeida's best chance is using his BJJ grappling to a submission if he doesn't want to end up like Pete Sell - dazed and confused. Brown has the rounded skill advantage, I predict Brown with a TKO or long hard decision.

UFC 111 Jon Fitch v. Thiago "The Pitbull" Alves

This matchup comes down to which fighter has evovled more skills and power since their last meeting when Jon Fitch beat Alves. As Randy Couture says, the pressure is on the winner because the loser can make some adjustments and is motivated. Fitch has not evolved to the same level as Alves. Thiago has the skill set to dominate Fitch anywhere. Alves defeated Matt Hughes and this could be very similar. The best tactics for Alves will be to stop the takedown and use his muay thai to punish Fitch as he tries to grapple. My system predicts a Thiago Alves victory.

UFC 111 Carwin v. Mir

Carwin was rocked by Gabriel Gonzaga before eventually landing the KO blow. Carwin's chin is suspect. I don't think he wants that- a stand up war with Frank Mir. His best strategy is to out wrestle Mir in a textbook rehash of Mir v. Lesnar 2. Carwin wants to muscle Mir to the fence and then suppress and silence him. I predict Carwin by an ugly ground and pound TKO or decision.