Yi Long: Future MMA Champion?

Hello;

I don't post much on the ideas of mixed martial arts as I got a little bored of it and the sport has matured to the point that differences are small between fighters and styles.  Today, I return from hermitism to declare my respect for Chinese Shaolin fighter Yi Long.

Yi Long


I think if he developed a ground game he would become a UFC champion in no time.

UFC 162 Silva vs. Weidman

Here are my observations on the Silva vs. Weidman fight.

One, Anderson Silva has secretly wanted to be beat for a while now. I believe he has been insulted at the calibre of fighters that he had to fight, not being as well-rounded as he is, for a while and that's why he turned from "Good" Anderson to "Cocky" Andersonin the octagon.

Ironically, this is what helped him win. "Cocky" would start the fight. He took people off their game plan, demoralized them, and made then doubt themselves and then he would switch back to "Good" Anderson after they stopped doing what they planned for and then he found a way to win; even against Chael Sonnen that he really should have lost. The whole plan rests on good fighters doubting themselves.


This switcheroo plan was working so well.  People kept training for the worst case scenario in a tough hard Anderson and kept meeting the taunting elusive fighter he became. The problem with this game plan was it got predictable.  Once you establish a pattern, sooner or later it will catch up with you.

But really, this was a secret cry for help.  He didn't want to have the pressure of being number one.  He made his money and proved his point.  If someone knocks out "Good" Anderson then he was truly beaten.  But if someone lucks out and clips "Cocky" Anderson then he can still say well I was clowning around and got caught. Ooops. A face saving move for posterity.  The fact he doesn't want a rematch proves my point. He would have to show up with a good game plan and truly beat a better wrestler.  And Weidman showed he can take Anderson down at will. He knew eventually he was going to be beaten.

Ray Longo, who has coached upset fight plans before against better fighters, trained Chris Weidman for "Cocky" Anderson. Chris Weidman ignored the insults and looked for his one chance to catch Anderson showboating.  Well the backwards swivel only works so long if your feet are planted and this is a rookie mistake Anderson should know. He's caught many people flat footed.

How ironic a professional getting shown up with an amateur mistake. But that's what Anderson wanted

UFC-126 Anderson Silva v. Vitor Belfort

UFC 126 is the event where Anderson Silva loses his belt, a championship he has held for 12 fights.

Anderson Silva has all the tools and a very relaxed style. His style is well known and predictable. Chael Sonnen was moments away from defeating Anderson Silva when he got caught. That is like a big bull's eye over Anderson Silva proclaiming he is ripe for defeat. Anderson was lucky last time, and that's the first time in a while that can be said. He doesn't take Vitor seriously and that will be his undoing.

Vitor Belfort has had mental toughness problems in the past, but his recent streak of calm cool dissection of tough opponents demonstrates he is ready for Anderson Silva. Vitor trained with Anderson and so he knows tactics and training from inside the other camp.

Look for Vitor to explode on Anderson in the opening minutes, look for the opening, and rush right over Anderson to a KO victory. He defeated Rich Franklin in the same manner, he will be patient and pick his spot.

UFC 123 Rampage v. Machida

Rampage Jackson has all the right factors in his favor to beat Machida. The so-called Machida era was nothing more than a marketing ploy. Machida was a man who used a novel technique to be unpredictable and uncommon so that he was able to overmatch unprepared opponents.

But here's the reality Joe Rogan, the evolution of fighting in the UFC has transpired because novel tactics were introduced and had a limited advantage. Of course, the rest learn from the new techniques and adapt. Shogun demonstrated that just bowling into Machida was enough to neutralize that advantage. And so the evolution moves on.

And Rampage is the master of bowling through opponents. If Rampage learned his lesson from his last fight against Rashad Evans, he will not respect the skills of Machida and move in for the inglorious kill from the start. His tactics will be to close on and destroy Machida. As Machida backs up to regain long range he backs straight up. This will be a hard habit to break. Rampage has watched the video. He knows Machida can be knocked out and so he will be able to defeat him just by closing that distance and weather the oncoming shots. Shogun weathered the storm, and so can Rampage.

Rampage was sufficiently unhappy with his performance in the last fight to motivate him to train. Machida left his last fight believing it was not a bad defeat.

If Machida has not learned his lesson, then expect a first round KO / TKO by Rampage. I predict a Rampage victory, by KO, in any round.

UFC 121 Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez

Brock Lesnar has elevated himself to the toughest SOB on the planet. Well he was a round away from being KOed by Shane Carwin. That self importance may make him an elite athlete, but he needs reality as well.

Tactically, Brock Lesnar wants to make this a simple wrestling match where he uses his size and strength to dominate and suppress Cain Velasquez. So he needs to close the distance and make it very hard for and offence. Brock wants to keep things simple and refuse all the dangerous conditions.

For Cain, the task is to stay at long range and dance in and out of control while picking his moves and his shots. He does not want to come into close range or get stuck in a corner without an exist strategy.


As for the intangibles, Cain has not been under the pressure of a 5 round fight in the past, but neither has Brock really - Couture doesn't count since he was really a skilled light heavyweight. And Brock has not recovered from a wicked combination of strikes like the one that put Nogueira onto the mat for the count.

From a matchup perspective the fight favours Velasquez: Brock has to close the distance and dominate but Cain has the speed and skill to attack and retreat at will. If Cain is smart he will feint in and out of range and frustrate the champ. And then when Brock is frustrated and behind in points the mistakes will happen and the lights will go out. Expect Cain to win in the third by KO or ref stoppage.

UFC 114 - Rampage vs. Evans

The bad blood coaches "Suga" Rashad Evans and Quinton "Rampage" Jackson are going to settle all the trash talk and hard feelings that is the result of a their feud. They both think they can knock out the other opponent. They both have talent and athleticism. Each man has held the belt and really has one shot to reclaim the title before age and a new crop of up and coming fighters bursts onto the scene.

Rashad Evans is a product of the new wave of MMA training and combined skills. Quinton Jackson is a long time fighter, as he calls himself a true fighter, and has paid his dues. Rashad has lead a sheltered career since the TUF season victory. Rampage has been kicked around on and off the mat.

I favour Rampage Jackson personally, so you may not take my comments as fully partial. However, I have analyzed the fighters and tactics and I can explain why I believe Rampage is going to kick the living snot from Rashad's over used mouth.

Rashad is a product of a good camp with good team mates. He has thrived with "Yoda" Greg Jackson and has delivered on opponents with a better game plan that he sticks to. But his skill lacks creativity. He could not finish Thiago Alves and he had the better of the wrestling match until he got rocked. And then he got rocked and his plans went down hill. Rashad has fast hands, and everyone points to his lightning knockout of Chuck Liddell as proof of his ability. It took Rashad 2 rounds to eventually find one that got through - all the while backing up and avoiding the Iceman's power. Had Rashad missed he was going down to the canvas himself. His game plan was better, he executed as instructed, and he got the knockout as a lucky side effect of the above not the other way around.

Rampage learned his craft on the pay as you go plan; he paid with blood and pain and losses to fearsome opponents at 205. Rampage has defeated better fighters and has survived the likes of Wanderlei Silva and Chuck Liddell. Rampage is stronger, meaner, and gets very angry inside the cage. Just ask powerbomb recipient Ricardo Arona. I point to one fight to tell you just how good Rampage is. When he fought Marvin "Beastman" Eastman, he matched strike for strike and even turned the contest into brawl to wear down Eastman. Eastman is faster and stronger than Rashad Evans. Rampage caught Eastman - the shorter stockier fighter just like Rashad - and clipped him enough to stun him and cause the knockout.

Both fighters have suspect chins and neither wants to go for a nap while the other one parties.
Both fighters have written checks with their mouths that will take a pretty big effort to fulfill. This is the making of a super fight.

I predict Rashad will come in with a game plan to wrestle for top position and try to grind out Rampage. He may try the counter striker plan and look for a takedown or just try and shoot in for the legs. He will be fit and he will be prepared but I think that he is also rattled by the wordplay of Rampage so he is going to be unfocused on the man in front of him. That spells doom for a man who needs to concentrate and stick to a game plan.

I predict Rampage will come out the way he always does, he is prepared for all levels and he tries to defend before unleashing his power. I also predict he will howl. I believe that Rampage believes that he can beat Rashad anywhere so he will feel comfortable to stick to his gameplan - he will look for the opening and creep in with a stunning blow. Quinton will be just as cautious as he was with the Iceman and Wanderlei (3rd meeting) but he knows he can deliver. It is all a matter of patience.

I predict that Rampage and Rashad will dance for a while and test each other out. I believe Rashad will back up and try and provoke a good counter punch situation. Rashad may switch levels to test his wrestling against Rampage. For his part, Rampage will keep things simple - get Rashad close and wobble his legs.

I predict that as soon as Rashad's game plan doesn't work it will be a nerve racking moment when he realized what he is up against. Then the fear and doubt will creep in. Most professions can survive a momentary hesitation - not this one. We will see Rampage find a way onto Rashad's jaw. And then Rashad will wish he had that B.A. Baracus job acting instead of being in the cage with an angry werewolf. I predict Rampage in the second round by standing or ground and pound TKO.

I know I will enjoy this fight.

UFC 113 Mauricio Rua v. Lyoto Machida

At UFC 113, Mauricio Rua and Lyoto Machida will settle the question of which one of them deserved to win that split decision for the light heavyweight title last match. Machida thinks he did enough with some punch flurries and retreating - even running away at some points from Mauricio Shogun Rua - to keep the title. Shogun was satisfied with punishing legs kicks not to lose a bad exchange and then he ended up leaving it to the non-competent judges to score. Big mistake.

Rua has now learned how to outstrike Machida from long range. He came with the better game plan, was fit and hungry and Machida was satisfied to sit back and let the action come to him.

Machida will be prepared for aggressive action this time otherwise he will be roundly criticized like Anderson Silva his friend for being to quick to sit back and defend.

Rua understands Machida and will be ready to defend the strikes and counter strikes. Machida is still adjusting his game tactics to counter those effective lower legs kicks that made him limp to the hospital after the last engagement.

Rua's camp has said they will change the game plan, and I believe them because the element of suprise is a very important factor in finding ways to win: do what your opponent doesn't expect so you throw off his gameplan and make him react a half second behind what is coming next.

I expect this to be a one-sided contest, I envision Machida trying to strike and engage with Rua, while Rua expecting this plan will turn the conflict into a wrestling match first to try and submit Machida. Whether or not this works, Machida will react by changing his gameplan. When Machida is afraid of the takedown, Rua will use the leg kick hesitance to explode for a knockout. I predict this will not go 2 rounds, with Rua the victor.

Strikeforce - Gegard Mousasi v. Mo Lawal

This matchup will be more interesting, I believe, than the main event. Mo Lawal is a converted wrestler looking to parlay his cockiness into gold; Mousasi is an ever-improving force who has trained with the best and prides himself on being a consummate warrior. Lawal has never faced a well-rounded fighter at the top of the game - so this will be a real coming out party for Mo "King" Lawal.

The best tactics for Lawal will be to rediscover wrestling and make this a ground and pound affair. I predict that when Lawal gets Mousasi to the ground - he will find the arm bar and knee bar attempts very troubling. That will make him pause. Mousasi has been pressed by larger and faster grapplers like Sokoudjou so Mousasi will not be phased by it. On the feet, look for Mousasi to stick and move before giving "King" Mo Lawal a taste of top flight competition.

This may be a long drawn out contest, but I predict it will go Mousasi's way.

Strikeforce - Dan Henderson v. Jake Shields

Dan Henderson was once described by Randy Couture as a man that, once he got a hold of you, you needed to ask nicely to get him to let go. Hendo is more than a match for Jake Shields, in wrestling or in striking. Hendo wants to prove something now that the UFC cut him loose and he wants to demonstrate why that was a big mistake. I think that Hendo could have beat Anderson a second time, and perhaps he is figuring his value will go up when he wins against some other talented fighters. While I don't think Hendo is the same as in the Pride days, and he may not have enough tricks left up his sleave, but he is one of the original RAW wrestlers who is as tough as they come.

Jake Shields is a young fighter with a long career ahead of him. If he comes in with the right training camp and right tactics I can see a speedy victory for Shields. His speed and cardio vascular could exploit a quick weakness. His best tactics would be to make this a striking match and keep Hendo at reach and on the defensive while he looks for that chin. Unfortunately, Shields is not an exceptional striker yet and this seems like a feat too hard to pull off. Remember, Hendo knocked out Wanderlei Silva with a wild punch that no one expected - especially the axe murderer Wanderlei. Sooner or later a striking exchange would end with a hard left and then a sound nap.

I see this fight going where Dan Henderson wants it to and then look for some old school ground and pound. Hendo will be too much for the younger fighter. I predict a Hendo victory inside 2 rounds.

Dana White and Anderson Silva at UFC 112

I have a split opinion when it comes to Dana White; one minute he makes a lot of sense, the next minute I wonder which planet he is orbiting.

I agree with Dana's complaint that Anderson Silva is tarnishing the good reputation of mixed martial arts (MMA) after Anderson's UFC 112 performance versus Demian Maia. Anderson should stop watching pro wrestling or the NFL. No one likes that sort of thing in MMA - it's more of a low brow gimmick. Anderson Silva would have more right to brag if he did risk losing by taking on opponents rather than run out the clock and showboating. If Anderson was so tough then why didn't he get on the ground and finish Maia? If Anderson Silva is such a student of the game, then why didn't he try to submit a fellow Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt in Abu Dhabi, home of the Abu Dhabi ADCC competition? That would have been a better event for the fans and a more memorable accomplishment.

Back to Dana White. Dana White is right to complain. But Dana White also knows Anderson Silva is bored. He cleaned out the division. And Dana won't want you to remember back in November 2009 when he refused to give Dan Henderson a better deal. Hendo had learned his lesson from fight #1 against Anderson Silva and he has a real chance to beat Anderson Silva. So Dana White forgets to tell you that he made a bad decision which set up that farce at UFC 112. Dana refused to force a rematch that almost certainly would have ended with a Hendo victory. Of course, no manager ever makes a mistake - at least that's what they'll tell you.

Anderson Silva is comfortable on top. Too comfortable. And he is taking his lessons from Tito Ortiz instead of Fedor. Anderson would deserve the praise more if he risked it all for a little more - instead of trash talking and ducking competition.

UFC 112 Anderson Silva v. Demian Maia

This contest was not supposed to happen, but when an injury forced a new competitor Demian Maia was dropped into the pit with the most experienced striker on the planet. It doesn't take a crystal ball to see that Demian Maia, who lost by one punch to Nate Marquardt, is unlikely to win. Demian Maia has a chance to win, but he has to teleport onto the side of Anderson Silva and then roll him to the ground. It is a widely held belief that Anderson will be beaten on the ground, like Ryo Chonan's incredible move. I always thought it would be Dan Henderson to roll him over and pound him to sleep.

Anderson Silva has long arms and so he's in trouble when you get in close like Hendo tried to do.

Demian Maia's best strategy is to forget striking altogether and work on his wrestling. He needs to drive in and avoid the straight right while he is aiming for a double leg takedown. Maia needs to push Silva into the fence to avoid the extra blows and then he needs to isolate one limb from the rest. Silva has lots of weaknesses, but other fighters just don't get a chance to exploit them.

Post Fight Analysis

After reviewing the fight, Demian Maia should have listened to me. If he came in ready to charge and wrestle that fight would have been a whole lot more interesting instead of embarrassing.

UFN Gleison Tibau v. Caol Uno

Gleison Tibau and Caol Uno come from wrestling / grappling backgrounds so this is a technique matchup rather than a striker versus grappler contest. This kind of matchup produces two things: sheer boredom or a thrilling fight. Either someone gets clipped early and this fight ends in a surprise knockout or they will roll like dung beetles trying to get behind each other and squeeze the consciousness clean. I am hoping for fireworks, but Gleison Tibau has been a decision master in the recent past like he can't find the right strategy to win. This indicates a weaker mental strength. Caol Uno rolls for broke sometimes and if he comes in with the right strategy he may surprise Tibau. I think Uno's best tactics will be to explode and look for the opening and gain the back of Tibau for a rear naked choke. Tibau is a larger fighter, so I predict he will use his power advantage to smother Uno and keep Uno in jeopardy. I predict Tibau by decision.

UFN Nate "Rock" Quarry v. Jorge "Conquistador Rivera

This should be one of the best fights of the night, right before Takanori Gomi puts Kenflo's lights out. Nate and Jorge are UFC fixtures with long and violent histories. Each has faced the top tier that the UFC has to offer and only lost by a little. In terms of overall skill, Rivera has a better striker style and that means he does have the advantage. But in the end, Nate Quarry will be the fitter and more durable fighter. I predict Nate Quarry by either a TKO/KO or a unanimous decision.

UFN Ross Pearson v. Dennis Siver

Both Siver and Pearson are up and coming fighters in the UFC, both are hoping to make it into the upper crust of lightweight fighters. Pearson is better known from the ultimate fighter TV show, but I was impressed with Siver's striking skill. Pearson will try and set the pace and grind out this fight. But I think he has bitten off a little more than he can chew or swallow. Look for Siver to punish Pearson slogging in with a pinpoint kick that sets Pearson on his back. I predict a win for Siver, perhaps by TKO.

UFN Stefan Struve v. Roy "Big Country" Nelson

Stefan Struve poses a serious challenge to Roy "Big Country" Nelson. Like Paul Buentello before, Struve's chin is hard to hit from the bottom half of a ladder so this will not be an easy affair. What is going in Roy "Big Country" Nelson's favour is that he is a better grappler that Paul Buentello. Big Country's best strategy will be to make this a wrestling match and look for an ankle lock. Struve will know this, and he should come prepared to circle away and fire jabs into that oncoming mullet. I predict Struve by decision.

UFN Kenny "Kenflo" Florian v. Takanori "Fireball Kid" Gomi

Kenny "Kenflo" Florian is trying to find a purpose since losing to BJ Penn. Takanori "Fireball Kid" Gomi is a real challenge. Florian is well rounded, but Gomi is no stranger to danger and has seen it all. Kenny Florian weakness is punching power; he is not a hip-puncher. Florian does not have knockout power. Gomi, on the other hand, does have dynamite in his hands. BJ Penn ran Florian around with his KO power and look for Gomi to do the same. Gomi will use the threat of a one punch dirt nap to bully Florian and keep him back on his heels. I predict Gomi by KO or Decision to defeat Florian.

UFC 111 Georges "Rush" St. Pierre v. Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy

The welterweight belt is on the line at UFC 111, with Georges "Rush" St. Pierre returning from an injury layoff to face a pompous and brash striker Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy. From the outside this looks like a karate striker versus muay thai striker match. But GSP has found a natural talent for wrestling that he has used to dominate larger stronger wrestlers. GSP's best tactics will be to smother and ground and pound Hardy into submission. GSP is not afraid of heavy hands. Hardy is not as well rounded and he will look to get that one nasty blow in to TKO/KO GSP. I predict GSP will dominate from whereever he wants and grind Hardy to a 3rd round submission or TKO.

UFC 111 Matt "The Immortal" Brown v. Ricardo "The Big Dog" Almeida

Matt Brown is part of the new wave of MMA fighters. Ricardo Almeida is one of the old school BJJ fighters that can claim to be part of the founders of the MMA movement. Matt Brown is a rounded striker and grappler. Almeida has submitted strong competitors like Nate Marquardt. But Matt Brown is more than a strong MMA fighter, he has determination to win and powers through pain and adversity. While Brown has lost by arm bar to Amir Sadollah, he has had 2 years of training to get out of that trap. Brown's best tactics are to keep this on the feet and look for the KO, and if that fails grind out a win in top position while keeping out of the submission. Almeida's best chance is using his BJJ grappling to a submission if he doesn't want to end up like Pete Sell - dazed and confused. Brown has the rounded skill advantage, I predict Brown with a TKO or long hard decision.

UFC 111 Jon Fitch v. Thiago "The Pitbull" Alves

This matchup comes down to which fighter has evovled more skills and power since their last meeting when Jon Fitch beat Alves. As Randy Couture says, the pressure is on the winner because the loser can make some adjustments and is motivated. Fitch has not evolved to the same level as Alves. Thiago has the skill set to dominate Fitch anywhere. Alves defeated Matt Hughes and this could be very similar. The best tactics for Alves will be to stop the takedown and use his muay thai to punish Fitch as he tries to grapple. My system predicts a Thiago Alves victory.

UFC 111 Jim Miller v. Mark Bocek

Jim Miller and Mark Bocek is a classic Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Black Belt versus a converted wrestler contest. Mark Bocek has been in the UFC for a while now, and has not broken through the journeymen gatekeeper in the lightweight division. Bocek's best chance occurs if he can keep Jim Miller on the mat looking for the next submission. Jim Miller has better striking and will make it difficult for Bocek to grapple for the takedown. Miller's best tactics will be to circle away and counter punch until an opening appears to finish a frustrated Bocek. My system predicts a Miller victory